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Methodological Proposal for the Prediction of Hydrological Responses to Land-Uses and Land-Cover Changes in a Brazilian Watershed

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Towards Mathematics, Computers and Environment: A Disasters Perspective

Abstract

The land-use and land-cover (LULC) can undergo major changes as urbanization increases in a region. These continuous changes are a big challenge for the management of water resources, since numerous studies show that these changes directly affect the availability and surface runoff of water in a watershed. The present research mapped the diagnosis and prognosis of hydrological responses of a Brazilian watershed through projections of the past (1985), present (2015), and future (2030) LULCC, in scenarios of excess and scarcity of precipitation. The tools used to execute the proposed methodology were land-uses and land-cover changes (LULCC) and hydrological models, the land change modeler (LCM) and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), respectively. The subwatersheds modeled during the 45 years simulation presented changes of 59.0% of the total area, which directly impacted the simulated results of maximum flows for all subwatersheds. Thus, the obtained results provided an integrated view based on the behavior of the local population and the physical characteristics of the regions, generating pertinent information that can serve as subsidies for managers and decision makers to mitigate the risk of hydrological natural disasters.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    https://swat.tamu.edu/software/swat-cup/.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by: Municipal Service of Emergency Response and Civil Protection of Maricá (SEPDEC), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), International Virtual Institute of Global Changes (IVIG), and National School of Statistical Sciences (ENCE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Protection and Civil Defense Municipal Office, Maricá, RJ, Brazil

    Lidiane dos Santos Lima

  2. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Ocean Engineering Program, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

    Paulo Cesar Colonna Rosman

  3. Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, National School of Statistical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

    Julia Celia Mercedes Strauch & Letícia de Carvalho Giannella

  4. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Department of Geography, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

    Nelson Ferreira Fernandes

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  1. Lidiane dos Santos Lima
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  2. Paulo Cesar Colonna Rosman
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  3. Julia Celia Mercedes Strauch
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  4. Nelson Ferreira Fernandes
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  5. LetĂ­cia de Carvalho Giannella
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Correspondence to Lidiane dos Santos Lima .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

    Leonardo Bacelar Lima Santos

  2. Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (UNESP), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

    Rogério Galante Negri

  3. Department of Informatics, Federal Institute of SĂŁo Paulo (IFSP), Campinas, SĂŁo Paulo, Brazil

    Tiago José de Carvalho

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Lima, L.d.S., Colonna Rosman, P.C., Mercedes Strauch, J.C., Fernandes, N.F., de Carvalho Giannella, L. (2019). Methodological Proposal for the Prediction of Hydrological Responses to Land-Uses and Land-Cover Changes in a Brazilian Watershed. In: Bacelar Lima Santos, L., Galante Negri, R., de Carvalho, T. (eds) Towards Mathematics, Computers and Environment: A Disasters Perspective. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21205-6_6

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