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Identifying areas sensitive to land use/land cover change for downstream flooding in a coastal Alabama watershed

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Abstract

This paper explored the linkage between historic, current and future land use/land cover (LULC) conditions and peak flow and runoff volumes in a coastal community in Alabama in an effort to identify critical areas for downstream flooding. The study demonstrated that critical areas cannot be determined intuitively without conducting modeling studies. The study watershed, Eightmile Creek, experienced approximately 48 % forest loss between 1966 and 2011 largely due to urbanization. Residential development is expected to continue mostly in the central part of the watershed in the near future. Historic, current and future LULC maps were developed by processing aerial imagery, which were used in the HEC-HMS hydrologic model to study flood risk. An index method was applied to estimate the contribution of different parts of the watershed to downstream peak flows. The model showed a significant increase in peak flow and runoff volume from 1966 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2022 due to urbanization. The sensitivity of peak flows to LULC change decreased with increasing storm return periods, but the order of importance of different parts of the watershed, in terms of flooding, did not change significantly. Results of this study demonstrate the need for sustainable development by targeting areas that can have the least impacts on downstream flooding. The methodology presented in this paper can help decision makers propose land use alternatives to minimize adverse environmental impacts.

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Acknowledgments

This work is a result of research sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce, the Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium (Grant Number NA10OAR4170078) and the Center for Environmental Studies at the Urban–Rural Interface, Auburn University. The help of Rajesh Sawant who developed the LULC maps from aerial photographs is greatly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, 140 E Green St, Athens, GA, 30602, USA

    Navideh Noori

  2. School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36849-5126, USA

    Latif Kalin

  3. Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 247667, India

    Sumit Sen

  4. Biosystems Engineering Department, Auburn University, 206 Tom E. Corley Building, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA

    Puneet Srivastava

  5. School of Architecture, Planning and Landscape Architecture, Auburn University, 104 Dudley Hall, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA

    Charlene Lebleu

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  1. Navideh Noori
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  2. Latif Kalin
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  3. Sumit Sen
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  4. Puneet Srivastava
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  5. Charlene Lebleu
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Correspondence to Latif Kalin.

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Editor: Xiangzheng Deng.

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Noori, N., Kalin, L., Sen, S. et al. Identifying areas sensitive to land use/land cover change for downstream flooding in a coastal Alabama watershed. Reg Environ Change 16, 1833–1845 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0931-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0931-5

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