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Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe

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Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas

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Abstract

The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (~ 157,000 km2) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the PESETA III Project (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis). The study uses climate data from the EURO-CORDEX project. We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers who have provided helpful comments on the refinement of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Bio-Economy Unit, TP 261, 21027, Ispra, Italy

    José I. Barredo, Achille Mauri & Giovanni Caudullo

  2. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Disaster Risk Management Unit, TP 1001, 21027, Ispra, Italy

    Alessandro Dosio

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  1. José I. Barredo
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  2. Achille Mauri
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  3. Giovanni Caudullo
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Correspondence to José I. Barredo .

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  1. Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia

    Ivica Vilibić

  2. Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Split, Croatia

    Kristian Horvath

  3. FundaciĂłn Centro de Estudios Ambientales, Department of Meteorology and Pollutant, Paterna, Valencia, Spain

    José Luis Palau

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Barredo, J.I., Mauri, A., Caudullo, G., Dosio, A. (2019). Assessing Shifts of Mediterranean and Arid Climates Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Climate Projections in Europe. In: Vilibić, I., Horvath, K., Palau, J. (eds) Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Pageoph Topical Volumes. Birkhäuser, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11958-4_14

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