Modernity, Globalisation and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Abstract

As described in Chapter 2, the theory of epidemiological transition, first proposed by Omran in 1971, divides human history into epidemiological ‘ages’. The theory argues that the first epidemiological transition occurred when hunter-gathering societies adopted agriculture about 10,000 years ago. This was followed by an extended ‘age of pestilence and famine’. The next transition occurred from the end of the eighteenth century, in light of rising standards of living in more developed countries, where pandemics of infection began to recede and mortality rates began to fall. A similar transition was occurring in the twentieth century in developing countries. The theory proposed that, in the long term, across the world, pandemics of infection would progressively be displaced by degenerative and human-made diseases as the leading causes of death.