Abstract
In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
That is, we model observable outcomes conditionally on parameters which themselves are given a probabilistic description in terms of further parameters known as hyperparameters.
While repeated experiments are not available in the patient-specific clinical setting, we may view this as data from multiple individual patients in a similar population.
References
Achilleos A, Loizides C, Stylianopoulos T, Mitsis GD (2013) Multi-process dynamic modeling of tumor-specific evolution. In: 13th IEEE conference on bioinformatics and bioengineering, pp. 1–4. doi:10.1109/BIBE.2013.6701614
Achilleos A, Loizides C, Hadjiandreou M, Stylianopoulos T, Mitsis GD (2014) Multiprocess dynamic modeling of tumor evolution with Bayesian tumor-specific predictions. Ann Biomed Eng 42(5):1095–1111. doi:10.1007/s10439-014-0975-y
Aguilar O, Allmaras M, Bangerth W, Tenorio L (2015) Statistics of parameter estimates: a concrete example. SIAM Rev 57(1):131–149
Akaike H (1973) Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov BN, Caski F (eds) Proceedings of the second international symposium on information theory. Akademiai Kiado, Budapest
Allmaras M, Bangerth W, Linhart JM, Polanco J, Wang F, Wang K, Webster J, Zedler S (2013) Estimating parameters in physical models through Bayesian inversion: a complete example. SIAM Rev 55(1):149–167
Andrieu C, Thoms J (2008) A tutorial on adaptive MCMC. Stat Comput 18(4):343–373. doi:10.1007/s11222-008-9110-y
Arlot S, Celisse A (2010) A survey of cross-validation procedures for model selection. Stat Surv 4:40–79. doi:10.1214/09-SS054
ASME (2006) ASME V&V 10-2006: guide for verification and validation in computational solid mechanics. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York
ASME (2009) ASME V&V 20-2009: standard for verification and validation in computational fluid dynamics. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York
ASME (2012) ASME V&V 10.1-2012: an illustration of the concepts of verification and validation in computational solid mechanics. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York
Babuška I, Tempone R, Zouraris GE (2004) Galerkin finite element approximations of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. SIAM J Numer Anal 42(2):800–825
Babuška I, Nobile F, Tempone R (2007) A stochastic collocation method for elliptic partial differential equations with random input data. SIAM J Numer Anal 45(3):1005–1034
Babuška I, Nobile F, Tempone R (2008) A systematic approach to model validation based on Bayesian updates and prediction related rejection criteria. Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 197:2517–2539
Baldock AL, Rockne RC, Boone AD, Neal ML, Hawkins-Daarud A, Corwin DM, Bridge CA, Guyman LA, Trister AD, Mrugala MM, Rockhill JK, Swanson KR (2013) From patient-specific mathematical neuro-oncology to precision medicine. Front Oncol 3:62
Bayarri MJ, Berger J, Paulo R, Sacks J, Cafeo JA, Cavendish JC, Lin C, Tu J (2007) A framework for validation of computer models. Technometrics 49:138–154
Bellman R, Åström KJ (1970) On structural identifiability. Math Biosci 7(3):329–339. ISSN 0025-5564. doi:10.1016/0025-5564(70)90132-X
Berger JO (1984) The robust Bayesian viewpoint (with discussion). In: Kadane JB (ed) Robustness of Bayesian analyses. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp 63–144
Chen W, Wong C, Vosburgh E, Levine AJ, Foran DJ, Xu EY (2014) High-throughput image analysis of tumor spheroids: a user-friendly software application to measure the size of spheroids automatically and accurately. J Vis Exp (89). doi:10.3791/51639. http://www.jove.com/video/51639/high-throughput-image-analysis-tumor-spheroids-user-friendly-software
Chib S, Greenberg E (1995) Understanding the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Am Stat 49(4):327–335
Cobelli C, DiStefano JJ (1980) Parameter and structural identifiability concepts and ambiguities: a critical review and analysis. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 239(1):R7–R24, ISSN 0363-6119
Connor AJ (2016) Calibration, validation and uncertainty quantification. doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.3406876. Supporting data and code
Gammon K (2012) Mathematical modelling: forecasting cancer. Nature 491:66–67
Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Dunson DB, Vehtari A, Rubin DB (2014a) Bayesian data analysis, 3rd edn. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A (2014b) Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. Stat Comput 24(6):997–1016. doi:10.1007/s11222-013-9416-2
Ghanem R (1999) Stochastic finite elements with multiple random non-Gaussian properties. ASCE J Eng Math 125(1):26–40
Ghanem R, Red-Horse J (1999) Propogation of probabilistic uncertainity in complex physical systems using a stochastic finite element approach. Phys D 133:137–144
Ghanem RG, Spanos PD (1991) Stochastic finite elements: a spectral approach. Springer, Berlin
Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (eds) (1996) Practical Markov chain Monte Carlo. Chapman and Hall, London
Gompertz G (1825) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on the new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond 115:513–585
Hastings WK (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57:97–109
Hawkins-Daarud A, Prudhomme S, van der Zee KG, Oden JT (2013) Bayesian calibration, validation, and uncertainty quantification of diffuse interface models of tumour growth. J Math Biol 67:1457–1485
Higdon D, Kennedy M, Cavendish JC, Cafeo JA, Ryne RD (2005) Combining field data and computer simulations for calibration and prediction. SIAM J Sci Comput 2(26):448–466
Insua DR, Ruggeri F (eds) (2000) Robust Bayesian analysis, volume 152 of lecture notes in statistics. Springer, New York
Kaipio J, Somersalo E (2006) Statistical and computational inverse problems. Springer, New York
Kennedy MC, O’Hagan A (2001) Bayesian calibration of computer models. J R Stat Soc Ser B (Stat Methodol) 63(4):425–464. doi:10.1111/1467-9868.00294
Kullback S, Leibler RA (1951) On information and sufficiency. Ann Math Stat 22(1):79–86. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177729694
Laird AK (1964) Dynamics of tumor growth. Br J Cancer 18:490–502
Lopes HF, Tobias JL (2011) Confronting prior convictions: on issues of prior sensitivity and likelihood robustness in Bayesian analysis. Annu Rev Econ 3:107–131. doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125134
Massey FJ (1951) The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for goodness of fit. J Am Stat Assoc 46(253):68–78
Metropolis N, Ulam S (1949) The Monte Carlo method. J Am Stat Assoc 44:335–341
Metropolis N, Rosenbluth AW, Rosenbluth MN, Teller AH, Teller E (1953) Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines. J Chem Phys 21:1087–1092
Miller LH (1956) Table of percentage points of Kolmogorov statistics. J Am Stat Assoc 51(273):111–121
Najm HN (2009) Uncertainty quantification and polynomial chaos techniques in computational fluid dynamics. Annu Rev Fluid Mech 41:35–52
Nobile F, Tempone R, Webster C (2008a) A sparse grid stochastic collocation method for elliptic partial differential equations with random input data. SIAM J Numer Anal 46(5):2309–2345
Nobile F, Tempone R, Webster C (2008b) An anisotropic sparse grid stochastic collocation method for elliptic partial differential equations with random input data. SIAM J Numer Anal 46(5):2411–2442
Norris JR (1998) Markov chains. Number no. 2008 in Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780521633963
NRC (2012) Assessing the reliability of complex models: mathematical and statistical foundations of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. The National Academies Press. ISBN 9780309256346
Oberkampf WL, Barone MF (2006) Measures of agreement between computation and experiment: validation metrics. J Comput Phys 217(1):5–36. doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2006.03.037
Oberkampf WL, Roy CJ (2010) Verification and validation in scientific computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Oberkampf WL, Trucano TG, Hirsch C (2004) Verification, validation, and predictive capability in computational engineering and physics. Appl Mech Rev 57(5):345–384. doi:10.1115/1.1767847
Oden JT, Moser R, Ghattas O (2010a) Computer predictions with quantified uncertainty, part i. SIAM News 43(9):1–3
Oden JT, Moser R, Ghattas O (2010b) Computer predictions with quantified uncertainty, part ii. SIAM News 43(10):1–3
Pathmanathan P, Gray RA (2013) Ensuring reliability of safety-critical clinical applications of computational cardiac models. Front Physiol. doi:10.3389/fphys.2013.00358
Pericchi LR, Peréz ME (1994) Posterior robustness with more than one sampling model. J Stat Plan Inference 40:279–294
Raue A, Kreutz C, Maiwald T, Bachmann J, Schilling M, Klingmüller U, Timmer J (2009) Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood. Bioinformatics 25(15):1923–1929. doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btp358
Roache PJ (2009) Fundamentals of verification and validation, 2nd edn. Hermosa Publishers, New Mexico
Savage N (2012) Modelling: computing cancer. Nature 491:62–63
Schervish MJ (1995) Theory of statistics. Springer series in statistics. Springer, New York
Simpson DP, Rue H, Martins TG, Riebler A, Sørbye SH (2014) Penalising model component complexity: a principled, practical approach to constructing priors. In arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.4630 [stat.ME]
Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, van der Linde A (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). J R Stat Soc B 64(4):583–639
Tarantola A (2005) Inverse problem theory and methods for model parameter estimation. SIAM, Philadelphia
Tatang MA, Pan W, Prinn RG, McRae GJ (1997) An efficient method for parametric uncertainity analysis of numerical geophysical models. J Geophys Res 102(D18):21925–21932
Watanabe S (2010) Asymptotic equivalence of Bayes cross validation and widely applicable information criterion in singular learning theory. J Mach Learn Res 11:3571–3594
Xiu D, Hesthaven JS (2005) High-order collocation methods for differential equations with random inputs. SIAM J Sci Comput 27(3):1118–1139
Xiu D, Karniadakis GE (2002) Modeling uncertainty in steady state diffusion problems via generalized polynomial chaos. Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 191:4927–4948
Xiu D, Karniadakis GE (2003) Modeling uncertainty in flow simulations via generalized polynomial chaos. J Comput Phys 187:137–167
Yankeelov TE, Atuegwu N, Hormuth D, WeisJA, Barnes SL, Miga MI, Rericha EC, Quaranta V (2013) Clinically relevant modeling of tumor growth and treatment response. Sci Transl Med 5(187). ISSN 1946-6234. doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.3005686
Acknowledgements
J. Collis and M. E. Hubbard acknowledge the support of EPSRC Grant Number EP/K039342/1. This project has received funding from the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under Grant Agreement No. 600841.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Joe Collis and Anthony J. Connor have contributed equally to this work.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Collis, J., Connor, A.J., Paczkowski, M. et al. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial. Bull Math Biol 79, 939–974 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0258-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-017-0258-5