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Landslide susceptibility modelling using the quantitative random forest method along the northern portion of the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada

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Abstract

The random forest method was used to generate susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides in the Donjek River area within the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, based on an inventory of landslides compiled by the Geological Survey of Canada in collaboration with the Yukon Geological Survey. The aim of this study is to develop data-driven landslide susceptibility models which can provide information on risk assessment to existing and planned infrastructure. The factors contributing to slope failure used in the models include slope angle, slope aspect, plan and profile curvatures, bedrock geology, surficial geology, proximity to faults, permafrost distribution, vegetation distribution, wetness index, and proximity to drainage system. A total of 83 debris flow deposits, 181 active layer detachment slides, and 104 rock slides were compiled in the landslide inventory. The samples representing the landslide free zones were randomly selected. The ratio of landslide/landslide free zones was set to 1:1 and 1:2 to examine the results of different sample ratios on the classification. Two-thirds of the samples for each landslide type were used in the classification, and the remaining 1/3 were used to evaluate the results. In addition to the classification maps, probability maps were also created, which served as the susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides. Success and prediction rate curves created to evaluate the performance of the resulting models indicate a high performance of the random forest in landslide susceptibility modelling.

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Acknowledgements

This project was funded by Natural Resources Canada’s Program of Energy and Research and Development. The authors would like to thank Sharon Smith (GSC project leader), Panya Lipovsky (Yukon Geological Survey), and John Clague (Simon Fraser University) for their continual input and Amaris Page, Marian Kremer, and Ariane Castagner, Joe Koch, and Olivier Bellehumeur-Génier, Phil Bonnaventure for their technical assistance and data input. Philip Bonnaventure is thanked for the permafrost probability distribution model. Antoni Lewkowicz is thanked for helpful discussions. The manuscript was greatly improved with critical reviews by Graeme Bonham-Carter, Sharon Smith, and Jeff Harris.

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  1. Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, ON, K1A0E8, Canada

    Pouran Behnia & Andrée Blais-Stevens

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  1. Pouran Behnia
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  2. Andrée Blais-Stevens
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Correspondence to Andrée Blais-Stevens.

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Behnia, P., Blais-Stevens, A. Landslide susceptibility modelling using the quantitative random forest method along the northern portion of the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada. Nat Hazards 90, 1407–1426 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3104-z

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