Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow-type involve different soils, and they often cause huge social and economical disasters, posing threat to life and livelihood all over the world. Due to the frequent large extension of the rainfall events, these landslides can be triggered over large areas (up to tens of square kilometres), and their source areas can be analysed with the aid of distributed, physically based models. Despite the high potential, such models show some limitations related to the adopted simplifying assumptions, the quantity and quality of required data, as well as the use of a quantitative interpretation of the results. A relevant example is provided in this paper referring to catastrophic phenomena involving volcaniclastic soils that frequently occur in southern Italy. Particularly, three physically based models (SHALSTAB, TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated) are used for the analysis of the source areas of huge rainfall-induced shallow landslides occurred in May 1998 inside an area of about 60 km2. The application is based on an extensive data set of topographical, geomorphological and hydrogeological features of the affected area, as well as on both stratigraphical settings and mechanical properties of the involved soils. The results obtained from the three models are compared by introducing two indexes aimed at quantifying the “success” and the “error” provided by each model in simulating observed source areas. Advantages and limitations of the adopted models are then discussed for their use in forecasting the rainfall-induced source areas of shallow landslides over large areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baum RL, Savage WZ, Godt JW (2002) TRIGRS-A FORTRAN program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 02-0424. Available via: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/ofr-02-424/

  • Baum RL, Coe JA, Godt JW, Harp EL, Reid ME, Savage WZ, Schulz WH, Brien DL, Chleborad AF, Mckenna JP, Michael JA (2005) Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA. Landslides 2(4):266–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baum RL, Savage WZ, Godt JW (2008) TRIGRS-A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, version 2.0. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1159. Available via: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1159/

  • Bilotta E, Cascini L, Foresta V, Sorbino G (2005) Geotechnical characterization of pyroclastic soils involved in huge flowslides. Geotech Geol Eng 23:365–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brancaccio L, Cinque A, Russo F, Sgambati D (1999) Osservazioni geomorfologiche sulle frane del 5-6Maggio 1998 del Pizzo d’Alvano (Monti di Sarno, Campania). In: Orombelli (ed) Studi geografici e geologici in onore di Severino Belloni, pp 81–123 (in Italian)

  • Calcaterra D, de Riso R, Evangelista A, Nicotera MV, Santo A, Scotto di Santolo A (2004) Slope instabilities in the pyroclastic deposits of the carbonate Apennine and the Phlegrean district (Campania, Italy). In: Picarelli L (ed) Proceedings of International Workshop “Flows 2003—Occurrence and Mechanisms of Flows in Natural Slopes and Earthfill”, Sorrento. Patron, Bologna, pp 61–75

  • Cascini L (2004) The flowslides of May 1998 in the Campania region, Italy: the scientific emergency management. Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica 2:11–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Cascini L, Sorbino G (2004) The contribution of soil suction measurements to the analysis of flowslide triggering. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proceedings of International Workshop “Flows 2003—Occurrence and Mechanisms of Flows in Natural Slopes and Earthfills”, Sorrento. Patron, Bologna, pp 77–86

  • Cascini L, Cuomo S, Sorbino G (2005a) Flow-like mass movements in pyroclastic soils: remarks on the modelling of triggering mechanisms. Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica 4:11–31

    Google Scholar 

  • Cascini L, Guida D, Sorbino G (2005b) Il Presidio Territoriale: una esperienza sul campo. Rubbettino Editore, Catanzaro

    Google Scholar 

  • Cascini L, Cuomo S, Guida D (2008a) Typical source areas of May 1998 flow-like mass movements in the Campania region, southern Italy. Eng Geol 96:107–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cascini L, Ferlisi S, Vitolo E (2008b) Individual and societal risk owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy). Georisk 2(3):125–140

    Google Scholar 

  • Celico P, Guadagno FM (1998) L’instabilità delle coltri piroclastiche delle dorsali carbonatiche in Campania: attuali conoscenze. Quaderni di Geologia Applicata 5(1):129–188 (in Italian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chirico GB, Longobardi A, Villani P (2002) Analisi idrologica del rischio di colate su vaste aree mediante indici topografici, statici e dinamici. In: Proceedings of Conference “XXVIII Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche”, Potenza, 16–19 Sep 2002, vol 1, pp 401–410 (in Italian)

  • Coe JA, Godt JW (2001) Debris Flows Triggered by the El Niño Rainstorm of Feb 2–3, 1998, Walpert Ridge and Vicinity, Alameda County, California. US Geological Survey Miscellaneous Field Studies Map MF-2384. Available via: http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/2002/mf-2384/

  • Coe JA, Godt JW, Tachker P (2004) Map showing recent (1997–98 El Niño) and historical landslides, Crow Creek and vicinity, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California. US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 2859. Available via: http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/2004/2859/

  • Crosta GB, Frattini R (2003) Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3:81–93

    Google Scholar 

  • Crozier MJ (2005) Multiple-occurrence regional landslide events in New Zealand: hazard management issues. Landslides 2(4):247–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Argenio B, Pescatore T, Scandone P (1973) Schema geologico dell’Appennino meridionale (Campania-Lucania). In: Proceedings of Conference “Moderne vedute sulla geologia dell’Appennino”. Acc. Nazionale dei Lincei, quad 183 (in Italian)

  • Di Crescenzo G, Santo A (2005) Debris slides-rapid earth flows in the carbonate massifs of the Campania region (southern Italy): morphological and morphometric data for evaluating triggering susceptibility. Geomorphology 66:255–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietrich WE, Wilson CJ, Reneau SL (1986) Hollows, colluvium, and landslides in soil-mantled landscapes. In: Abrahams AD (ed) Hillslope processes. Allen and Unwin, Boston, pp 361–388

    Google Scholar 

  • Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ, On behalf of the JTC-1 Joint Technical Committee on Landslides, Engineered Slopes (2008a) Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102(3–4):85–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, Cascini L, Leroi E, Savage WZ, On behalf of the JTC-1 Joint Technical Committee on Landslides, Engineered Slopes (2008b) Guidelines’ commentary for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning. Eng Geol 102(3–4):99–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiorillo F, Wilson RC (2004) Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy). Eng Geol 75:263–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frattini P, Crosta GB, Fusi N, Dal Negro P (2004) Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment. Eng Geol 73:277–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gardner WR (1958) Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table. Soil Sci 85:228–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geo-Slope (2005) User’s guide. GeoStudio 2004, Version 6.13. Geo-Slope Int Ltd Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Google Scholar 

  • Godt JW, Baum RL, Savage WZ, Salciarini D, Schulz WH, Harp EL (2008) Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework. Eng Geol 102:214–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guadagno FM, Revellino P (2005) Debris avalanches and debris flows of the Campania Region (southern Italy). In: Jakob Hungr M, Hungr O (eds) Debris-flow hazard and related phenomena. Springer, Berlin, pp 489–518

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Guadagno FM, Forte R, Revellino P, Fiorillo F, Focareta M (2005) Some aspects of the initiation of debris avalanches in the Campania region: the role of morphological slope discontinuities and the development of failure. Geomorphology 66:237–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guida D (2003) The role of the zero-order basin in flowslide-debris flow occurrence and recurrence in Campania (Italy). In: Proceedings of International Conference on “Fast Slope Movements - Prediction and Prevention for Risk Mitigation”, Napoli, vol 1. Patron, Bologna, pp 255–262

  • Hungr O, Evans SG, Bovis MJ, Hutchinson JN (2001) A review of the classification of landslides of the flow type. Environ Eng Geosci 7(3):221–238

    Google Scholar 

  • Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36(7):1897–1910

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res 30:1153–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olivares L, Picarelli L (2001) Susceptibility of loose pyroclastic soils to static liquefaction: some preliminary data. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Landslides—Causes, Impact and Countermeasures, Davos, pp 75–84

  • Pack RT, Tarboton DG, Goodwin CN (1998) The SINMAP approach to terrain stability mapping. In: Proceedings of 8th International Congress of the International Association of Engineering Geology and the Environment, Vancouver, vol 2. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 1157–1165

  • Pareschi MT, Favalli M, Giannini F, Sulpizio R, Zanchetta G, Santacroce R (2000) May 5, 1998, debris flow in circum-Vesuvian areas (southern Italy): insights for hazard assessment. Geol 28(7):639–642

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rolandi G (1979) The eruptive history of somma-vesuvius. In: Cortini H, De Vivo B (eds) Volcanism and Archaeology in Mediterranean Areas, pp 77–88

  • Salciarini D, Godt JW, Savage WZ, Conversini P, Baum RL, Michael JA (2006) Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria region of central Italy. Landslides 3:181–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage WZ, Godt JW, Baum RL (2004) Modeling time-dependent areal slope stability. In: Lacerda WA, Erlich M, Fontoura SAB, Sayao ASF (eds) Landslides-evaluation and stabilization, Proceedings of 9th International symposium on Landslides, vol 1. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 23–36

  • Sorbino G (2005) Numerical modelling of soil suction measurements in pyroclastic soils. In: Tarantino A, Romero E, Cui YJ (eds) Advanced experimental unsaturated soil mechanics, Proceedings of International symposium, Trento. Taylor and Francis Group, London, pp 541–547

  • Sorbino G, Foresta V (2002) Unsaturated hydraulic characteristics of pyroclastic soils. In: Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Unsaturated Soils, Recife, vol 1. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 405–410

  • Sorbino G, Sica C, Cascini L, Cuomo S (2007) On the forecasting of flowslides triggering areas using physically based models. In: Proceedings of 1st North American Landslides Conference, vol 1. AEG Special Publication 23, pp 305–315

  • Srivastava R, Yeh T-CJ (1991) Analytical solutions for one-dimensional, transient infiltration toward the water table in homogeneous and layered soils. Water Resour Res 27:753–762

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terlien MTJ, van Westen CJ, van Asch TWJ (1995) Deterministic modelling in GIS-based landslide hazard assessment. In: Carrara A, Guzzetti F (eds) Geographical information systems in assessing natural hazards. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, pp 57–77

    Google Scholar 

  • van Asch TWJ, Buma J, van Beek LPH (1999) A view on some hydrological triggering systems in landslides. Geomorphology 30(1–2):25–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ward TJ, Li RM, Simons DB (1982) Mapping landslides in forested watersheds. ASCE J Geotech Eng Div 8:319–324

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu W, Sidle RC (1995) A distributed slope stability model for steep forested basins. Water Resour Res 31:2097–2110

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The Authors wish to express their deep gratitude to W. Z. Savage, R. L. Baum and, above all, J. W. Godt of the US Geological Survey (Golden, CO) for making the TRIGRS-unsaturated code available and for the fundamental support in its use.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, Salerno, Italy

    Giuseppe Sorbino, Carlo Sica & Leonardo Cascini

Authors
  1. Giuseppe Sorbino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Carlo Sica
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Leonardo Cascini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Carlo Sica.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Sorbino, G., Sica, C. & Cascini, L. Susceptibility analysis of shallow landslides source areas using physically based models. Nat Hazards 53, 313–332 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9431-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9431-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation