Abstract
Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW) systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds) warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of such a system for Almaty, Kazakhstan. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Factors like the possibility of station failure, elevation and access difficulty to a potential site, and the potential usefulness of existing stations in the region are considered. We present a large set of possible efficient networks, to which further selection criteria can be applied by both the installation teams and the end user, such as authorities in Almaty.
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Acknowledgments
The research presented here is funded by the Potsdam Research Cluster for Georisk Analysis, Environmental Change and Sustainability (PROGRESS) in collaboration with the REAKT project (Towards Real Time Earthquake Risk Reduction) of the European Seventh Framework Programme. Support was also provided by the Fonds National de la Recherche, Luxembourg cofunded by the Marie Curie Actions of the European Commission (FP7-COFUND) (AFR project 4817114). The article benefited from constructive feedback by two anonymous reviewers.
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Stankiewicz, J., Bindi, D., Oth, A. et al. Designing efficient earthquake early warning systems: case study of Almaty, Kazakhstan. J Seismol 17, 1125–1137 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4