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Assessing stakeholder impacts and adaptation to low water-levels: the Trent-Severn waterway

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Abstract

The Trent-Severn Waterway in central Ontario, Canada, is a large inland water system. It is managed for a broad range of stakeholders with different needs and expectations, creating a complex management context. Although variations in water levels occur, extreme low water-level events may increase in the future due to climate change, challenging management practices, in addition to requiring adaptation to reduce impacts. A modified policy Delphi was used to generate and evaluate ideas related to historical and future water-level impacts and adaptations. The paper presents the perspectives of three groups—cottagers and homeowners (CH), government (G), and industry and business (IB)—on their experiences with historic low water-levels, as well as their perspectives on future impacts and adaptations using two water-level scenarios: a moderate decrease of 25 cm and a more severe 50 cm decline. Shared impacts and adaptations (individual and collective) were identified along with those that were unique to a group. The likelihood of and consensus on potential impacts and most adaptations increased with the severity of water-level reduction. All groups indicated a higher likelihood of using collective rather than individual adaptations with the severe scenario, and in some cases, their contacts for assistance with adaptation broadened. While the modified policy Delphi requires significant effort by the analyst and respondents, it provides a useful framework for generating and analyzing perceptions and preferences of diverse stakeholders.

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Acknowledgments

This article was carried out with the financial support of the University of Waterloo and the Mexican National Council for Science and Technology (Conacyt), Project 221460, CB-2013-01. The assistance of Jenna Disch, Brenda Jones, Andrea Hebb, and Marianne Alden in conducting this research is greatly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Environmental Management, Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, ON, Canada

    J. M. A. Coleman & P. J. Deadman

  2. Department of Economics, Research Area of Economic Growth and Environment, Metropolitan Autonomous University-Azcapotzalco, San Pablo 180, Mexico City, 02200, Mexico

    F. S. Sosa-Rodriguez

  3. Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, ON, Canada

    L. D. Mortsch

Authors
  1. J. M. A. Coleman
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  2. F. S. Sosa-Rodriguez
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  3. L. D. Mortsch
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  4. P. J. Deadman
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to F. S. Sosa-Rodriguez or L. D. Mortsch.

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Coleman, J.M.A., Sosa-Rodriguez, F.S., Mortsch, L.D. et al. Assessing stakeholder impacts and adaptation to low water-levels: the Trent-Severn waterway. Climatic Change 134, 115–129 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1524-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1524-x

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