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Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

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Abstract

General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO2 atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO2 climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Toronto, 100 St. George St., Rm 5047, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3G3, Canada

    Alexandre S. Gagnon

  2. Department of Physical Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada

    William A. Gough

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  1. Alexandre S. Gagnon
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  2. William A. Gough
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Correspondence to Alexandre S. Gagnon.

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Gagnon, A.S., Gough, W.A. Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison. Climatic Change 69, 269–297 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1815-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-1815-8

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