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A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

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Abstract

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.

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Acknowledgments

R.D.L. and J.A.F.D-F received a research productivity scholarship from CNPq. J.T-F is supported by a CAPES master scholarship. J.C.N. research was supported by CNPq (Post-Doc scholarship #151531/2009-9), M.D.S. was supported by a CNPq scholarship. Work by P.L. and R.D. was supported by CNPq doctoral scholarships. R.D.L. and J.A.F.D.F. work is also funded by CAPES-FCT Program, the Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change (Rede-CLIMA), and Conservation International Brazil.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, C.P. 131, Goiânia, GO, CEP 74001-970, Brazil

    Rafael D. Loyola, Maíra Dalía Sagnori & José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho

  2. Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil

    Priscila Lemes, Joaquim Trindade-Filho & Ricardo Dobrovolski

  3. Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Unidade Universitária de Anápolis (UnUCET), Anápolis, Brazil

    João Carlos Nabout

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  1. Rafael D. Loyola
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  2. Priscila Lemes
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  4. Joaquim Trindade-Filho
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  7. José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho
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Correspondence to Rafael D. Loyola.

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Loyola, R.D., Lemes, P., Nabout, J.C. et al. A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change. Biodivers Conserv 22, 483–495 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-012-0424-x

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