Abstract
Experimenting with multi-channel operations in reality is both costly and risky, because it can severely affect a firm’s revenues, profitability, customer churn, and other customer metrics. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based simulation approach as a means for exploring and analyzing the impact of (combinations of) multi-channel activities on customer channel choices before having implemented them in practice. The simulation takes into account the heterogeneity of customers, social dynamics in their behavior, and the various phases of the purchasing process. To this end, customers are represented by agents whose phase-specific channel perceptions determine their channel choices. These perceptions may be altered by communication with other agents, first-hand experience of the channel, and/or marketing activities. The approach is illustrated through a sample application for which data from an international multi-channel retailer as well as from an empirical study among Austrian customers have been used.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alba JW, Hutchinson JW (1987) Dimensions of consumer expertise. J Consum Res 13(4):411–454
Alba J, Lynch J, Weitz B, Janiszewski C, Lutz R, Sawyer A, Wood S (1997) Interactive home shopping: consumer, retailer, and manufacturer incentive to participate in electronic marketplaces. J Mark 61(3):38–53
Albesa JG (2007) Interaction channel choice in a multichannel environment: an empirical study. Int J Bank Mark 25(7):490–506
Ansari A, Mela CF, Neslin SA (2008) Customer channel migration. J Mark Res 45(1):60–76
Bakken DG (2007) Visualize it. Mark Res 19(4):22–29
Balasubramanian S, Raghunathan R, Mahajan V (2005) Consumers in a multichannel environment: product utility, process utility, and channel choice. J Interact Mark 19(2):12–30
Balci O (1998) Verification, validation, and testing. In: Banks J (ed) Handbook of simulation. Wiley, New York, pp 335–393
Barabási A-L, Bonabeau E (1999) Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 286(5439):509–512
Berman B, Thelen S (2004) A guide to developing and managing a well-integrated multi-channel retail strategy. Int J Retail Distrib Manag 32(3):147–156
Bonabeau E (2002) Agent-based modeling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 99(3):7280–7287
Borshchev A, Filippov A (2004) From system dynamics and discrete event to practical agent based modeling: reasons, techniques, tools. In: Kennedy M, Winch GW, Langer RS, Rowe JI, Yanni JM (eds) Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Burgess RL, Huston TL (1979) Social exchange in developing relationships. Academic Press, New York
Burke RR (2002) Technology and the customer interface: what consumers want in the physical and virtual store. J Acad Mark Sci 30(4):411–432
Coelho F, Easingwood C (2005) Determinants of multiple channel choice in financial services: an environmental uncertainty model. J Serv Mark 19(4):199–211
Davis JP, Eisenhardt KM, Bingham CB (2007) Developing theory through simulation methods. Acad Manag Rev 32(2):480–499
Delre SA, Jager W, Bijmolt THA, Janssen MA (2007) Targeting and timing promotional activities: an agent-based model for the takeoff of new products. J Bus Res 60(8):826–835
Devlin JF, Yeung M (2003) Insights into customer motivations for switching to Internet banking. Int Rev Retail Distribu Consum Res 13(4):375–392
Fagiolo G, Moneta A, Windrum P (2007) A critical guide to empirical validation of agent-based models in economics: methodologies, procedures, and open problems. Comput Econ 30(3):195–226
Fotheringham AS (1988) Consumer store choice and choice set definition. Mark Sci 7(3):299–310
Ganesh J (2004) Managing customer preferences in a multi-channel environment using web services. Int J Retail Distrib Manag 32(2/3):140–146
Garcia R (2005) Uses of agent-based modeling in innovation/new product development research. J Prod Innov Manag 22(5):380–398
Geyskens I, Gielens K, Dekimpe MG (2002) The market valuation of Internet channel additions. J Mark 66(2):102–119
Gigerenzer G, Gaissmaier W (2011) Heuristic decision making. Annu Rev Psychol 62:451–482
Graf C, Six M (2014) The effect of information on the quality of decisions. Cent Eur J Oper Res 22(4):647–662
Grewal D, Iyer GR, Levy M (2004) Internet retailing: enablers, limiters and market consequences. J Bus Res 57(7):703–713
Günther M, Stummer C, Wakolbinger LM, Wildpaner M (2011) An agent-based simulation approach for the new product diffusion of a novel biomass fuel. J Oper Res Soc 62(1):12–20
Hansotia BJ, Rukstales B (2002) Direct marketing for multichannel retailers: issues, challenges and solutions. J Database Manag 9(3):259–266
Keen C, Wetzels M, de Ruyter K, Feinberg R (2004) E-tailers versus retailers: which factors determine consumer preferences. J Bus Res 57(7):685–695
Keeney RL (1999) The value of Internet commerce to the customer. Manag Sci 45(4):533–542
Keeney RL (2013) Identifying, prioritizing, and using multiple objectives. EURO J Decis Process 1(1):45–67
Kiesling E, Günther M, Stummer C, Wakolbinger LM (2009) An agent-based simulation model for the market diffusion of a second generation biofuel. In: Rossetti MD, Hill RR, Johansson B, Dunkin A, Ingalls RG (eds) Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 2009). Omnipress, Austin, pp 1474–1481
Kiesling E, Günther M, Stummer C, Wakolbinger LM (2012) Agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion: a review. Cent Eur J Oper Res 20(2):183–230
King RC, Sen R, Xia M (2004) Impact of web-based e-commerce on channel strategy in retailing. Int J Electron Commer 8(3):103–130
Konuş U, Verhoef PC, Neslin SA (2008) Multichannel shopper segments and their covariates. J Retail 84(4):398–413
Kumar V, Shah D, Venkatesan R (2006) Managing retailer profitability: one customer at a time. J Retail 82(4):277–294
Kumar V, Venkatesan R (2005) Who are the multichannel shoppers and how do they perform? Correlates of multichannel shopping behavior. J Interact Mark 19(2):44–62
Laukkanen T (2007) Customer preferred channel attributes in multi-channel electronic banking. Int J Retail Distrib Manag 35(5):393–412
Löhndorf B, Sachs A-L, Vetschera R (2014) Stability of probability effects in utility elicitation. Cent Eur J Oper Res 22(4):755–777
Macy MW, Willer R (2002) From factors to actors: computational sociology and agent-based modeling. Annu Rev Soc 28:143–166
Montoya-Weiss MM, Voss GB, Grewal D (2003) Determinants of online channel use and overall satisfaction with a relational, multichannel service provider. J Acad Mark Sci 31(4):448–458
Neslin SA, Grewal D, Leghorn R, Shankar V, Teerling ML, Thomas JS, Verhoef PC (2006) Challenges and opportunities in multichannel customer management. J Serv Res 9(2):95–112
Nicholson M, Clarke I, Blakemore M (2002) One brand, three ways to shop: situational variables and multichannel consumer behaviour. Int Rev Retail Distrib Consum Res 12(2):131–148
Oliver RL (1980) A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. J Mark Res 17(4):460–469
Rangaswamy A, Van Bruggen GH (2002) Opportunities and challenges in multichannel marketing: an introduction to the special issue. J Interact Mark 19(2):5–11
Rogers EM (2003) Diffusion of innovations. Free Press, New York
Soopramanien DGR, Robertson A (2007) Adoption and usage of online shopping: an empirical analysis of the characteristics of “buyers” “browsers” and “non-internet shoppers”. J Retail Consum Serv 14(1):73–82
Strebel J, O’Donnell K, Myers JG (2004) Exploring the connection between frustration and consumer choice behavior in a dynamic decision environment. Psychol Mark 21(12):1059–1076
Thomas JS, Sullivan UY (2005) Managing marketing communications with multichannel customers. J Mark 69(4):239–251
Tse ACB, Yim F (2001) Factors affecting the choice of channels: online vs. conventional. J Int Consum Mark 14(2/3):137–152
Verhoef PC, Neslin SA, Vroomen B (2007) Multichannel customer management: understanding the research-shopper phenomenon. Int J Res Mark 24(2):129–148
Wakolbinger LM, Stummer C (2013) Multi-channel management: an exploratory study of current practices. Int J Serv Econ Manag 5(1/2):112–124
Wang S, Wang S, Wang MT (2006) Shopping online or not? Cognition and personality matters. J Theor Appl Electron Commer Res 1(3):68–80
Watts DJ, Strogatz SH (1998) Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks. Nature 393(6684):440–442
Wind Y, Mahajan V (2002) Convergence marketing. J Interact Mark 16(2):64–74
Yilmaz L (2006) Validation and verification of social processes within agent-based computational organization models. Comput Math Organ Theory 12(4):283–312
Acknowledgments
We thank the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) for financial support of our work by Grant No. 123937. Furthermore, we are indebted to Stefan Katzensteiner for implementing the simulation tool.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sonderegger-Wakolbinger, L.M., Stummer, C. An agent-based simulation of customer multi-channel choice behavior. Cent Eur J Oper Res 23, 459–477 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-015-0388-5
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-015-0388-5