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A multivariate analysis of Antarctic sea ice since 1979

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Abstract

Recent satellite observations have shown an increase in the total extent of Antarctic sea ice, during periods when the atmosphere and oceans tend to be warmer surrounding a significant part of the continent. Despite an increase in total sea ice, regional analyses depict negative trends in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Sea and positive trends in the Ross Sea. Although several climate parameters are believed to drive the formation of Antarctic sea ice and the local atmosphere, a descriptive mechanism that could trigger such differences in trends are still unknown. In this study we employed a multivariate analysis in order to identify the response of the Antarctic sea ice with respect to commonly utilized climate forcings/parameters, as follows: (1) The global air surface temperature, (2) The global sea surface temperature, (3) The atmospheric CO2 concentration, (4) The South Annular Mode, (5) The Niño 3, (6) The Niño 3 + 4, 7) The Niño 4, (8) The Southern Oscillation Index, (9) The Multivariate ENSO Index, (10) the Total Solar Irradiance, (11) The maximum O3 depletion area, and (12) The minimum O3 concentration over Antarctica. Our results indicate that western Antarctic sea ice is simultaneously impacted by several parameters; and that the minimum, mean, and maximum sea ice extent may respond to a separate set of climatic/geochemical parameters.

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Acknowledgments

We thank CNPq (the Brazilian National Council for the Scientific and Technological Development) for funding this work (project: 556971/2009-4 and 573720/2008-8), and FAPERJ for scholoarship support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. LARAMG—Laboratório de Radioecologia e Mudanças Globais, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Uerj), Pav. Haroldo L. Cunha. Subsolo. Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524, Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20550-013, Brazil

    Newton de Magalhães Neto, Heitor Evangelista & Kenny Tanizaki-Fonseca

  2. Depto. Análise Geoambiental, Inst. de Geociências, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Av. Gen. Milton Tavares de Souza, s/nº sala 420. Campus da Boa Viagem, Niterói, RJ, 24210-340, Brazil

    Kenny Tanizaki-Fonseca

  3. Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ)/Geomatica, Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524, Pavilhão João Lyra filho, sala 5028-D, Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, CEP 20550-013, Brazil

    Margareth Simões Penello Meirelles

  4. Laboratório de Oceanografia Física, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG), Av. Itália km 8, Rio Grande, RS, 96201-900, Brazil

    Carlos Eiras Garcia

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  1. Newton de Magalhães Neto
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Correspondence to Newton de Magalhães Neto.

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de Magalhães Neto, N., Evangelista, H., Tanizaki-Fonseca, K. et al. A multivariate analysis of Antarctic sea ice since 1979. Clim Dyn 38, 1115–1128 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1162-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1162-6

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