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Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem CO2 exchange to climate change in High Arctic tundra using an ecological process-based model

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Abstract

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. A major concern is how the carbon balance of these ecosystems will respond to climate change. In this study, we constructed a simple ecological process-based model to assess how the carbon balance will be altered by ongoing climate change in High Arctic tundra ecosystems using in situ observations of carbon cycle processes. In particular, we simulated stand-level photosynthesis, root respiration, heterotrophic respiration, and hence net ecosystem production (NEP) of a plant community dominated by vascular plants and mosses. Analyses were carried out for current and future temperature and precipitation conditions. Our results showed that the tundra ecosystem was a CO2 sink (NEP of 2.3–18.9 gC m−2 growing season−1) under present temperature conditions. Under rising temperature (2–6 °C), carbon gain is significantly reduced, but a few days’ extension of the foliage period caused by their higher temperatures compensated for the negative effect of temperature on NEP. Precipitation is the major environmental factor driving photosynthetic productivity of mosses, but it had a minor influence on community-level NEP. However, NEP decreased by a maximum 15.3 gC m−2 growing season−1 under a 30-day prolongation of the moss-growing season, suggesting that growing season extension had a negative effect on ecosystem carbon gain, because of poorer light conditions in autumn. Because the growing season creates a weak CO2 sink at present, lengthening of the snow-free season coupled with rising temperature could seriously affect the future carbon balance of this Arctic tundra ecosystem.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant number: 20405010 and 24405009), the National Institute of Polar Research (Project number: KP-11), and  the GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project provided by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Production of this paper was supported by a National Institute of Polar Research publication subsidy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo, 190-8518, Japan

    Masaki Uchida

  2. Department of Polar Science, SOKENDAI (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies), 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo, 190-8518, Japan

    Masaki Uchida

  3. River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan

    Hiroyuki Muraoka

  4. Department of Environmental Dynamics and Management, Graduate School of Biosphere Science, Hiroshima University, 1-7-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-8521, Hiroshima, Japan

    Takayuki Nakatsubo

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  1. Masaki Uchida
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  2. Hiroyuki Muraoka
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  3. Takayuki Nakatsubo
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Correspondence to Masaki Uchida.

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Table 2 Nomenclature of coefficients and variables used for the model
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Uchida, M., Muraoka, H. & Nakatsubo, T. Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem CO2 exchange to climate change in High Arctic tundra using an ecological process-based model. Polar Biol 39, 251–265 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-015-1777-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-015-1777-x

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