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Statistical models for monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and invasion on the free-living insects and a spider from sub-Antarctic Heard Island

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Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems of sub-Antarctic islands are particularly sensitive to global and local human impacts, including climate change and species invasion. Invertebrates form a central component of these ecosystems. We conducted a stratified survey of 60 sites on sub-Antarctic Heard Island and used Poisson regression models to describe the spatial distribution and abundance of five of the ten free-living species captured. Acari and Collembola were not considered. Five species were not caught in traps in sufficient numbers to model. The distributions of species were described by altitude, vegetation type and aspect. The resulting distribution models can be used to both monitor and predict the effects of climate change and species invasion on this unique and valuable ecosystem.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Australian Antarctic Division for logistic support to AAS Project 1180 and permission to conduct research and collect specimens on Heard Island. We thank Steve Chown, who collected samples at Atlas Cove, Paul Scott, who assisted with field work and Paul Cooper of the Australia National University, who generously provided field supplies. Comments of Steve Chown, Peter Convey and Penny Greenslade greatly improved the paper.

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Correspondence to Kendi F. Davies.

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Davies, K.F., Melbourne, B.A., McClenahan, J.L. et al. Statistical models for monitoring and predicting effects of climate change and invasion on the free-living insects and a spider from sub-Antarctic Heard Island. Polar Biol 34, 119–125 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0865-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0865-1

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