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A macroscopic approach to demography

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Abstract.

A canonical/lognormal model for human demography is established, specifying the net maternity function and the age distribution for mothers of new-borns using a single macroscopic parameter vector of dimension five. The age distribution of mothers is canonical, while the net maternity function normalizes to a lognormal density. Comparison of an actual population with the model serves to identify anomalies in the population which may be indicative of phase transitions or influences from levels outside the demographic. Tracking the time development of the parameter vector may be used to predict the future state of a population, or to interpolate for data missing from the record. In accordance with classical theoretical considerations of Backman, Prigogine, et al., it emerges that the logarithm of a mother’s age is the most fundamental time variable for demographic purposes.

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  1. Dept. of Mathematics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, U.S.A

    J.D.H. Smith

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  1. J.D.H. Smith
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Smith, J. A macroscopic approach to demography. J. Math. Biol. 48, 105–118 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-003-0231-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-003-0231-9

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