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The Impact of Demographic Structure on Housing Price in Beijing Based on System Dynamics

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Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate (CRIOCM 2018)

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Abstract

This paper established a system dynamics model involving demographic structure and the housing market, and conducted a simulation on housing price in Beijing between 2000 and 2050. The main findings are: (1) demographic structure shows different influence paths on housing price, urbanization rate and proportion of external population have influence on the potential population in need of housing, while proportion of labor force shows impact on per capita disposable income; (2) housing price in Beijing will slightly drop and then grow in the 35-year simulation period, while housing price and income ratio will be declining and become relatively stable; (3) urbanization rate and proportion of external population has positive affect on housing price and housing price income ratio, while proportion of labor force has positive affect on housing price but negative affect on housing price income ratio.

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Acknowledgement

Foundation item:National Natural Science Foundation of China (71373143); Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program(2015THZ01)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University, Tsinghua, China

    Zhang Hong & Gao Wen

  2. Department of Accountancy, Hang Seng Management College, Hong Kong, China

    Li Vera

Authors
  1. Zhang Hong
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  2. Gao Wen
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  3. Li Vera
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gao Wen .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang, Guizhou, China

    Fenjie Long

  2. Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Sheng Zheng

  3. Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

    Yuzhe Wu

  4. Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang, Guizhou, China

    Gangying Yang

  5. College of Economics and Management, Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang, Guizhou, China

    Yan Yang

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Hong, Z., Wen, G., Vera, L. (2021). The Impact of Demographic Structure on Housing Price in Beijing Based on System Dynamics. In: Long, F., Zheng, S., Wu, Y., Yang, G., Yang, Y. (eds) Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate. CRIOCM 2018. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3977-0_41

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