Current status and future trends in supply and demand of cool season food legumes

Abstract

The paper looks at the current distribution and use of the four main cool season legumes (faba bean, chickpea, lentil, and dry pea) for food and for feed, since those roles are interchangeable and in many countries they are produced for both purposes. While recognizing that Lathyrus sativus may be grown more extensively if neurotoxic problems can be solved, this species is not dealt with comprehensively for lack of data. Lupins and vetches are grown almost exclusively for animal feed, their role is discussed only in this context.

The cool season food legumes have become widely distributed geographically and geoclimatically over time, but in reviewing the current situation the paper notes that they remain essentially concentrated in temperate and subtropical climates, with only very limited production in the warm lowland tropics, mainly at higher altitudes.

They contribute about 60% of total world pulse production on about 40% of world area, but the share of the different species in the total is unevenly distributed as is their geographical focus. Chickpeas and lentils are pre-dominantly produced in the developing countries, and peas in the developed countries, with faba beans being more evenly distributed. Overall, yields of food legumes in the developing countries are only about half those of the developed countries. For all four species, over 90% of their production is concentrated in only 12 countries, although those countries are not the same for all of the commodities.

In reviewing the growth of world pulse production, the paper notes that while the cool season species contributed most to overall output, and performance through the 1980s was quite good (3.5% per annum), that in the developing countries (1.5% per annum) was well below their population growth. Thus, per capita production has declined. Faba bean production fell in absolute terms; chickpea showed modest growth; lentil production expanded significantly; and peas performed excellently in the developed market economy countries with production growing at 10% annually, but declining sharply in China, the largest developing-country producer.

Consumption of cool season legumes increased by 10 million tons in developed countries, almost entirely for feed, and by 4.5 million tons in developing countries, primarily for food. Nevertheless, per capita consumption in those countries fell from 9.6 kg to 9.1 kg between 1980 and 1991.

Both imports and exports rose rapidly, almost doubling over the decade, with the proportion of production traded rising from 6.2 to nearly 11%. Nevertheless, pulse trade represents a rather thin market with prices sensitive to temporary changes in supply due to weather and the perceptions of the few major trading nations.

Looking ahead, the paper notes that there are no recent forward-looking projections of supply and demand for the food legumes, therefore it compares actual trends over the 1980s with 1986 FAO projections for that period. This assessment proved too optimistic with respect to food use and somewhat underestimated the rapid growth of feed use and imports, especially after 1985 when the actual growth of production lagged. The paper analyzes the factors likely to determine future demand for pulses and concludes that the main constraint is with supply. Drawing on these conclusions and on recent short-term assessments by Australian and North American producers, the paper concludes that while there is no cause for pessimism over the 1990s, especially with respect to demand for cool season food legumes, it seems likely that there will be some slow-down in the very rapid acceleration in their use for feed in developed countries which characterized the last half of the 1990s.

In order to maintain present levels of per capita food consumption and feed in the face of projected population growth, the paper estimates that legume production will need to rise by at least 13 million tons in the developing countries during the 1980s and the early 1990s, almost double the addition to their production in the 1980s. In exploring approaches to expanding supply, it is noted that while some countries have opportunities for increasing the area of pulses cultivated, the main thrust in many will have to be through increasing the present low levels of yield through research.

In conclusion, some issues related to research are discussed. These include:

• — how to raise yields of cool season species in developing countries to narrow the gap with those now being attained by top producing countries, such as for peas in the EEC; and whether the goal should be to raise yield ceilings or to improve yield stability;

• — the need to strengthen research on social sciences and to link technical and social science effort more closely so as to accelerate adoption of new technology; and

• — how to make most effective use of the relatively limited global research resources likely to be available for research on the food and feed legumes.