The Security Implications of Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean

Abstract

The dramatic changes currently taking place in and around the Arctic basin – ice melting, sea level rise, permafrost thaw, coastal erosion, etc. – are likely to have a major impact on the security situation of the Arctic coastal states, as well as that of outside actors, in the coming decades. The changes raise not only environmental security concerns, but also secondary concerns related to the dynamics of Arctic interstate relations. In some scenarios, climate change may serve as an “instability accelerator” and aggravate tensions between states over issues such as the access to offshore oil and gas resources, living marine resources, and shipping lanes. This is not to say that a “remilitarization” of the Arctic Ocean to be expected, or that the Arctic is more conflict-prone than other regions. The link between climate change and conflict is far from self-evident. There are many other intervening variables, such as the role of regional institutions, governments, and social actors in managing the process of environmental change, mitigating resource pressures, and containing potential tensions.