Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Factors Associated With Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Suicide Rates Across U.S. States, 1976–2000

  • Published:
Demography

Abstract

Using pooled cross-sectional time-series data for the 50 U.S. states over a 25-year period, this article examines how well four conceptual groups of social correlates—demographic, economic, social, and cultural factors—are associated with the 1976–2000 patterns in overall suicide rates and suicide by firearms and other means. Unlike past research that typically considers only one dimension, this analysis differentiates between spatial and temporal variation in suicide rates to determine whether and how social correlates operate differently in these two contexts. Results indicate that suicide rates correspond closely to social correlates. Within U.S. states, lower overall suicide rates between 1976 and 2000 were associated with demographic change (e.g., larger numbers of foreign-born) as well as with fewer numbers of Episcopalians. Across U.S. states, variation in overall suicide rates over the period was related to demographic (percentage male), economic (per capita income), social (percentage divorced), and cultural (alcohol consumption and gun ownership) factors. However, findings differ importantly by type of suicide, and across time and space. Reasons for these distinct patterns are discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The U.S. census groups states and the District of Columbia into nine census divisions. For more detail, see the Census Bureau website (http://www.census.gov/geo/www/2010census/gtc/gtc_census_divreg.html).

  2. The percentage of variation between and within states explained by the covariates is determined by estimating a baseline model (regional and year dummy variables only) and comparing the estimate of random variation between states and within states to that obtained when the full set of covariates is included. For example, the estimate of state-level variance in the baseline model is 4.3392 but is reduced to 0.7133 (84.4 %) when the covariates are added to the model.

  3. Although not statistically significant in the full model, the religious adherence rate is negatively and significantly associated with overall suicide rates across states when the percentage divorced (coefficient = −0.008; SE = 0.003) or alcohol consumption (coefficient = −0.007; SE = 0.002) is removed.

  4. Average per capita income and percentage urban are highly correlated. In the between-state model of nonfirearm suicides, per capita income is statistically significant (coefficient = 0.286; SE = 0.13) when percentage urban is removed. Percentage urban is statistically significant (coefficient = 0.037; SE = 0.02) when per capita income is removed.

References

  • Ajdacic-Gross, V., Killias, M., Hepp, U., Gadola, E., Bopp, M., Lauber, C., & Rössler, W. (2006). Changing times: A longitudinal analysis of international firearm suicide data. American Journal of Public Health, 96, 1752–1755.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allison, P. (2005). Fixed effects regression using the SAS system. Cary, NC: SAS Institute, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, R. N., Miniño, A. M., Hoyert, D. L., & Rosenberg, H. M. (2001). Comparability of cause of death between ICD–9 and ICD–10: Preliminary estimates. National Vital Statistics Reports, 49(2), 1–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bankston, W. B., Allen, H. D., & Cunningham, D. S. (1983). Religion and suicide: A research note on sociology’s “one law.” Social Forces, 62, 521–528.

    Google Scholar 

  • Beck, E. M. (1980). Labor unionism and racial income inequality: A time-series analysis of the post–World War II period. The American Journal of Sociology, 85, 791–814.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breault, K. D. (1988). Beyond the quick and dirty: Reply to Girard. The American Journal of Sociology, 93, 1479–1486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brent, D. A., Perper, J. A., Allman, C. J., Moritz, G. M., Wartella, M. E., & Zelenak, J. P. (1991). The presence and accessibility of firearms in the homes of adolescent suicides. A case control study. Journal of the American Medical Association, 266, 2989–2995.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bryk, A. S., & Raudenbush, S. W. (1992). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burr, J., McCall, P., & Powell-Griner, E. (1994). Catholic religion and suicide. Social Science Quarterly, 75, 300–318.

    Google Scholar 

  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Division of Violence Prevention. (2009). National suicide statistics at a glance. Retrieved from http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/suicide/statistics/index.html

  • Conwell, Y., Duberstein, P. R., Connor, K., Eberly, S., Cox, C., & Caine, E. D. (2002). Access to firearms and risk for suicide in middle-aged and older adults. The American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 10, 407–416.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook, P. (1979). The effect of gun availability on robbery and robber murder: A cross-sectional study of 50 cities. Policy Studies Reviews Annual, 3, 743–781.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper, P. N., & Milroy, C. M. (1995). The coroner’s system and under-reporting of suicide. Medicine, Science, and the Law, 35, 319–326.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cutright, P., & Fernquist, R. M. (2004). The culture of suicide through societal integration and religion: 1996–1998 gender-specific suicide rates in 50 American states. Archives of Suicide Research, 8, 271–285.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davis, J. A., Smith, T. W., & Marsden, P. V. (n.d.). General Social Surveys, 1972–2000 [Cumulative File]. ICPSR04697-v4. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributors], 2009-12-04. doi:10.3886/ICPSR04697.v4

  • Duberstein, P. R., Conwell, Y., Conner, K. R., Eberly, S., Evinger, J. S., & Caine, E. D. (2004a). Poor social integration and suicide: Fact of artifact? A case–control study. Psychological Medicine, 34, 1331–1337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duberstein, P. R., Conwell, Y., Conner, K. R., Eberly, S., Evinger, J. S., & Caine, E. D. (2004b). Suicide at 50 years of age and older: Perceived physical illness, family discord, and financial strain. Psychological Medicine, 34, 137–146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Durkheim, É. (1951). In J. A. Spaulding, G. Simpson, & G. Simpson (Eds.), Suicide, A study in sociology. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faris, R. E. L. (1955). Social disorganization (2nd ed.). New York: The Ronald Press Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faupel, C. E., Kowalski, G. S., & Starr, P. D. (1987). Sociology’s one law: Religion and suicide in the urban context. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 26, 523–534.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Florentine, J. B., & Crane, C. (2010). Suicide prevention by limiting access to methods: A review of theory and practice. Social Science & Medicine, 70, 1626–1632.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibbons, R. D., wan Hur, D., Bhaumik, K., & Mann, J. J. (2005). The relationship between antidepressant medication use and rate of suicide. Archives of General Psychiatry, 62, 165–172.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girard, C. (1988). Church membership and suicide reconsidered: Comment on Breault. The American Journal of Sociology, 93, 1471–1479.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gruenewald, P. J., Ponicki, W. R., & Mitchell, P. R. (1995). Suicide rates and alcohol consumption in the United States, 1970–1989. Addiction, 90, 1063–1075.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grunebaum, M. F., Ellis, S. P., Li, S., Oquendo, M. A., & Mann, J. J. (2004). Antidepressants and suicide risk in the United States, 1985–1999. The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 65, 1456–1462.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunnell, D., Middleton, N., Whitley, E., Dorling, D., & Frankel, S. (2003). Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly? A time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950–1998. Social Science & Medicine, 57, 595–611.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Johnston, J., & DiNardo, J. (1997). Econometric methods. New York: McGraw Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Judge, G. G., Griffiths, W. E., Carter Hill, R., Lutkepohl, H., & Lee, T. C. (1985). The theory and practice of econometrics. New York: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalmar, S., Szanto, K., Rihmer, Z., Mazumdar, S., Harrison, K., & Mann, J. J. (2008). Antidepressant prescription and suicide rates: Effect of age and gender. Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior, 38, 363–374.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kellermann, A. L., Rivara, F. P., & Somes, G. (1992). Suicide in the home in relation to gun ownership. The New England Journal of Medicine, 327, 467–472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, P. (2003). A guide to econometrics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Korenman, S., & Miller, J. E. (1997). Effects of long-term poverty on physical health of children in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. In G. Duncan & J. Brooks-Gunn (Eds.), Consequences of growing up poor (pp. 70–99). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kowalski, G. S., Faupel, C. E., & Starr, P. D. (1987). Urbanism and suicide: A study of American counties. Social Forces, 66, 85–101.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lester, D. (1995). Is divorce an indicator of general or specific social malaise? Journal of Divorce and Remarriage, 23, 203–205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Little, R. E., & Vogel, R. E. (1992). Handgun ownership and the religion factor. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 22, 1871–1877.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo, F., Florence, C. S., Quispe-Agnoli, M., Ouyang, L., & Crosby, A. E. (2011). Impact of business cycles on U.S. suicide rates, 1928–2007. American Journal of Public Health, 101, 1139–1146.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mairesse, J. (1990). Time-series and cross-sectional estimates on panel data: Why are they different and why should they be equal? In. G. Hartog, J. Ridder, & J. Theeuwes (Eds.), Panel data and labor market studies (pp. 81–95). New York: North-Holland.

  • Mann, J. J., Apter, A., Bertolote, J., Beautrais, A., Currier, D., Haas, A., & Hendin, H. (2005). Suicide prevention strategies: A systematic review. Journal of the American Medical Association, 294, 2064–2074.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maris, R. W., Berman, A. L., & Silverman, M. M. (2000). Comprehensive textbook of suicidology. New York: Guilford Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marvell, T. B., & Moody, C. E. (1991). Age structure and crime rates: The conflicting evidence. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 7, 237–273.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCall, P. L., & Land, K. C. (1994). Trends in white male adolescent, young-adult, and elderly suicide: Are there common underlying structural factors? Social Science Research, 23, 57–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Messner, S. R., & Sampson, R. J. (1991). The sex ratio, family disruption, and rates of violent crime: The paradox of demographic structure. Social Forces, 69, 693–713.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milane, M. S., Suchard, M. A., Wong, M. L., & Licinio, J. (2006). Modeling of the temporal patterns of fluoxetine prescriptions and suicide rates in the United States. PLoS Medicine, 3, 816–824.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, M., Azrael, D., & Hemenway, D. (2002). Household firearm ownership and suicide rates in the United States. Epidemiology, 13, 517–524.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, M., & Hemenway, D. (2008). Guns and suicide in the United States. The New England Journal of Medicine, 359, 989–991.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller, M., Lippmann, S. J., Azrael, D., & Hemenway, D. (2007). Household firearm ownership and rates of suicide across the 50 United States. The Journal of Trauma, Injury, Infection, and Critical Care, 62, 1029–1035.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mouw, T. (2002). Racial differences in the effects of job contacts: Conflicting evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Social Science Research, 31, 511–538.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). (2011). Per capita ethanol consumption for states, census regions, and the United States, 1977–2009. Bethesda, MD: NIAAA. Retrieved from http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/Surveillance92/tab3.1_09.htm

  • Pescosolido, B. A., & Georgianna, S. (1989). Durkheim, suicide, and religion: Toward a network theory of suicide. American Sociological Review, 54, 33–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pescosolido, B. A., & Mendelsohn, R. (1986). Social causation or social construction of suicide? An investigation into the social organization of official rates. American Sociological Review, 51, 80–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, J. A. (2006). Explaining discrepant findings in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses: An application to U.S. homicide rates. Social Science Research, 35, 948–974.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pridemore, W. A., & Snowden, A. J. (2009). Reduction in suicide mortality following a new national alcohol policy in Slovenia: An interrupted time-series analysis. American Journal of Public Health, 99, 915–920.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sainsbury, P., & Jenkins, J. S. (1982). The accuracy of officially reported suicide statistics for purposes of epidemiological research. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 36, 43–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, C. R., & McKay, H. D. (1942). Juvenile delinquency in urban areas. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon, T. R., Swann, A. C., Powell, K. E., Potter, L. B., Kresnow, M., & O’Carroll, P. W. (2001). Characteristics of impulsive suicide attempts and attempters. Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior, 32, 49–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stack, S. (2000a). Suicide: A 15-year review of the sociological literature part I: Cultural and economic factors. Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior, 30, 145–162.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stack, S. (2000b). Suicide: A 15-year review of the sociological literature part II: Modernization and social integration perspectives. Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior, 30, 163–176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stack, S., & Wasserman, I. M. (2010). Economic strain and suicide: A qualitative analysis. Suicide & Life-Threatening Behavior, 37, 103–112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steensland, B., Park, J. Z., Regnerus, M. D., Robinson, L. D., Wilcox, W. B., & Woodberry, R. D. (2000). The measure of American religion: Toward improving the state of the art. Social Forces, 79, 291–318.

    Google Scholar 

  • Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program Populations (1970–2000) National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch. (2011, January). Retrieved from www.seer.cancer.gov/popdata

  • Thorlindsson, T., & Bjarnason, T. (1998). Modeling Durkheim on the micro level: A study of youth suicidality. American Sociological Review, 63, 94–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). (1969–2000). Regional Economic Information System: 1969–2000. Retrieved from http://cba.unomaha.edu/faculty/cdecker/WEB/Geospatial%20and%20Statistical%20Data%20Center.htm

  • U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (1967–1999). Consumer price index–All urban consumers: 1967–1999. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov

  • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (1970–2000). Mortality detail file: External cause extract, 1970–2000. ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].

  • U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (n.d.). Local area unemployment statistics, 1970–2000. Retrieved from http://www.bls.gov/data/#unemployment

  • van Poppel, F., & Day, L. H. (1996). A test of Durkheim’s theory of suicide—Without committing the “ecological fallacy. American Sociological Review, 61, 500–507.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Tubergen, F., teGrotenhuis, M., & Ultee, W. (2005). Denomination, religious context, and suicide: Neo-Durkheimian multilevel explanations tested with individual and contextual data. The American Journal of Sociology, 111, 797–823.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wasserman, I. M. (1984). Imitation and suicide: A reexamination of the Werther effect. American Sociological Review, 49, 427–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wasserman, I. M. (1989). The effects of war and alcohol consumption patterns on suicide: United States, 1910–1933. Social Forces, 68, 513–530.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

I thank David Greenberg, Ellen Idler, Lauren Krivo, D. Randall Smith, the anonymous reviewers, and the Editor for very helpful comments. This research was supported in part by the American Foundation for the Prevention of Suicide.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and Aging Research, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, 112 Paterson Street, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    Julie A. Phillips

Authors
  1. Julie A. Phillips
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Julie A. Phillips.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 5 Regression results of suicide rates on selected covariates, by gender: 50 U.S. states, 1976–2000
Full size table
Table 6 Regression results of suicide rates on selected covariates, by race 50 U.S. states, 1976–2000
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Phillips, J.A. Factors Associated With Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Suicide Rates Across U.S. States, 1976–2000. Demography 50, 591–614 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0176-y

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0176-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation