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A stag hunt with signalling and mutual beliefs

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Abstract

The problem of cooperation for rational actors comprises two sub problems: the problem of the intentional object (under what description does each actor perceive the situation?) and the problem of common knowledge for finite minds (how much belief iteration is required?). I will argue that subdoxastic signalling can solve the problem of the intentional object as long as this is confined to a simple coordination problem. In a more complex environment like an assurance game signals may become unreliable. Mutual beliefs can then bolster the earlier attained equilibrium. I will first address these two problems by means of an example, in order to draw some more general lessons about combining evolutionary theory and rationality later on.

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Notes

  1. Lewis (1969) is the seminal work regarding the statement of these problems in combination. See also Gilbert (1989), and see Radford (1969), Cargile (1970) on the problem of common knowledge for finite minds, and Heal (1978). Cubitt and Sugden (2003) is one noteworthy and fairly recent paper, also on both problems. The central question of their paper, however, is not about what the function of iterated mutual beliefs, what the relevant part of common knowledge, could be—something I will try to argue. We will get back to Lewis at the end of this paper.

    The problem of the intentional object is of course a classic in analytic philosophy, with seminal work by Wittgenstein, Quine, Davidson, Kripke, Goodman.

  2. In philosophy, most notably by Skyrms (2004). In economics, see the literature in Sect. 3.

  3. For philosophical legitimating of this use of fiction, see Frigg (2010), Godfrey-Smith (2009). Fine (1993, 2009) provides an anti-theoretical account. In connection with models more specifically in economics see Sugden (2000, 2009) and Morgan (2001, 2004).

  4. Examples of bringing in parametric choice at an implausible (or unclear) point abound, to take a pick: Dupuy (1989), Gintis (2003), Vanderschraaff (2007) notes the trouble himself. Zollman (2005) also warns that one should be careful with drawing general lessons about human cooperation from very truncated models. Cf. the criticism by Sugden (2001).

  5. See for example Henrich et al. (2004).

  6. See Van Hooff (1972), Van Hooff and Preuschoft (2003) for chimpanzees. See most notably the work by Paul Ekman for humans: Ekman and Friessen (1971), Ekman (2003); and cf. Frank (1988, 2004); Brosig (2002).

  7. Albeit not in symmetric fashion. Escaping some actual teeth underway is more important than the problem of jumping up for nothing.

  8. On a teleosemantic account of meaning, e.g. Millikan (1984, 1989). Of course teleosemantic theories of meaning, broadly construed, are not uncontroversial; but not, I suppose, for the restricted domain I am talking about here: primitive signals with an undisputed evolutionary past. Cf. Stegmann (2005).

  9. Compare the literature on joint attention. E.g. Tomasello et al. (2005), Eilan et al. (2005).

  10. Of course this plan of action is not unconditional, it depends on the other. Stag hunting, as I have supposed, is a cooperative project for our creatures. Then how might they ever get started? Stylized, the hunt might be preceded by a two-stage trigger. A) The presence of a stag plus the presence of a comrade in my vicinity causes a half way house ‘stag-as-prey’ action tendency and the corresponding signal in me. B) If this also happens in you, then you transmit the ‘stag-as-prey’ signal to me, and this brings closure, the final confirmation I need: now I am all ready to go. Compare Velleman’s analysis of a shared intention between two individuals (Velleman 1997). It is questionable whether Velleman succeeds because he discusses conditional intentions between rational actors. The crucial point here is that the cooperative project at this stage can be understood in purely causal, subdoxastic, terms.

  11. E.g. Skyrms (2004, 2010).

  12. In the other subdivision of the stag hunt game [rabbits, rabbits] has the same pay off as [rabbits, stag] and v.v.

  13. For an overview see Devetag and Ortmann (2007).

  14. A repeated game with a small set of players and no anonymity can also generate the Pareto dominant outcome, but this result quickly unravels with more players and anonymity. Therefore the focus in the literature on randomized series, these make up the challenge.

  15. For a recent restatement see Zahavi (2003).

  16. One could object here that this adding costs for one party alters the pay-offs of our original game, as these are supposed to be net figures, benefits minus costs. But why should that matter? The cause of this change in pay-off structure could simply be a relevant fact. There is no rule that says that an analysis of a history of interaction should restrict itself to one and only one game form from beginning to end.

  17. See the literature mentioned in note 5.

  18. For an overview see Searcy and Nowicki (2005).

  19. Møller (1990).

  20. Wheeler (2009).

  21. For references see Searcy and Nowicki (2005, pp. 75, 76).

  22. Couldn’t it all be accounted for in terms of conditioned response? See Sect. 4.

  23. This has a foothold in the literature on the origins of human intelligence: what is known as the Machiavellian intelligence hypothesis. Scholars who wonder about the evolutionary development of human intelligence focus on deception. Social animals benefit from group life, from economies of scale, division of labour, and cooperative work. But social life also brings various sources of conflict amongst the individuals: over food, mating access, who bosses whom, who are allies, and so on. These intricacies imply that it becomes more and more important to have in mind not only what others are doing, and what they might be up to, but also what they think: beliefs about beliefs, in other words. In this field, tactical deception has become a paradigm for demonstrating such higher order beliefs. It has become a standard for cognitive performance in comparative psychology. Seminal work is Byrne and Whiten (1988) and Dunbar (2003). Cf. Sterelny (2006). In line with this, note that the stag hunt story has now moved beyond Homo Habilis.

  24. To be fair, Zollman is aware of this problem (see note 4).

  25. Unfortunately, Duffy and Feltovich (2006), while relating to Aumann’s work (in Duffy and Feltovich 2002), did not choose a stag hunt of the assurance type. They did, however, compare a simple stag hunt with a chicken game and a prisoner’s dilemma. The trends in the results with the simple stag hunt and the PD are such that I think it is safe to interpolate: what is true of both their stag hunt and their PD is arguably true of an assurance stag hunt too.

  26. The laboratory context is of course different than our imagined stag hunt story but I submit that the relevant relationship between signalling and mutual beliefs, i.e. how these mechanisms work together, is similar.

  27. For a review see Sally (1995), see also Frank (2004).

  28. Compare on the origin of convention Cubitt and Sugden (2003: 203) remarking that in the end “at least some inductive standards could be common,” for example certain “innate tendencies to privilege certain patterns when making inductive inferences,” with such tendencies then of course being the product of an evolutionary process.

  29. The experiment is from 1973, described by Tomasello and Call (1997) p. 237, 238. Cf. Byrne and Whiten (1988).

  30. E.g. Tomasello and Call (2006), Call and Tomasello (2008).

  31. I assume here that forgetfulness includes such failure of conditioned learning.

  32. See for example Tomasello et al. (2005) for a comparison between chimpanzees and human infants, and Connor and Mann (2006) for a review paper on dolphins.

  33. See Cubitt and Sugden (2003) on how this structure could be generated.

  34. Compare Sillari (2005) for a formal answer. Which portion of the infinite structure that becomes actual, Sillari says, has to do with what is deemed irrelevant, or what cannot be handled for lack of computational power, or for psychological reasons, and so on. He then develops a tool, ‘awareness structures,’ to take formally account of such heuristics. My approach is different but could be regarded as contrastive: given a subdoxastic basis, what could be, not irrelevant, but exactly relevant for mutual belief iteration, what could be grounds for ascending in the common knowledge structure.

  35. Some theoretical possibilities, not mutually exclusive: signals are products of trial and error learning (evolutionary game theory applies), signals are replicators and units of selection (memetics), a teleological theory of meaning restricted to more or less simple signals (cf. Sterelny 1990).

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Acknowledgments

Many thanks to Govert den Hartogh and Gijs van Donselaar.

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Correspondence to Jelle de Boer.

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de Boer, J. A stag hunt with signalling and mutual beliefs. Biol Philos 28, 559–576 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10539-013-9375-1

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