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Projection of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) population at provincial level of China and analysis on the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China

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Abstract

The paper describes a model for projecting the ELV population in 31 province-level regions of China in 2015, 2017, and 2020 under three scenarios, and compares the projection results with the current distribution and capacity of qualified ELV processors in China. Historical data on the population, GDP and vehicle scrap rates are combined to model ELVs. The development in vehicle ownership is modeled by a dynamic Gompertz function. We acquire a model for the changing trend of the vehicle scrap rate as motorization improves, using Japanese historical data of over 60 years. We recalculate the parameters of the model using Chinese historical data collected over a decade when applying the model to China. The paper not only presents a baseline projection of the ELV population in province-level regions of China at different levels of motorization, but also identifies the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China.

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Notes

  1. "Vehicles" are defined as "cars, buses and trucks".

  2. In this study, "Scrap rate" is defined as the "ELV population during indicated year/Vehicle population during indicated year".

  3. "Passenger vehicles" here are defined as "cars and buses".

  4. "Formal ELV collection rate here is defined as "Number of ELVs treated legally by qualified ELV processors/Number of generated ELVs". "Number of generated ELVs" is calculated as: Vehicle sales of domestic makers during indicated year − Exports of vehicles during indicated year + Imports of vehicles during indicated year − (Vehicle population during indicated year − Vehicle population during previous year)."

  5. "ELV products" here refers to parts from ELVs, refurbished ELVs and assembled vehicles by ELVs.

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Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by Setsutaro Kobayashi Memorial Found of Fuji Xerox and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No.70973034/G031201). Grateful appreciation is extended to Yukihiro HIRAWA, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, for his comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Humanities and Social Science, Chiba University, 1-33, Yayoi-cho, Inage, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan

    Shuhan Hu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing for Vehicle Body, Hunan University, Yuelu Mountain, Changsha, 410082, Hunan, China

    Shuhan Hu

  3. Department of Policy Studies, Faculty of Law and Economics, Chiba University, 1-33, Yayoi-cho, Inage, Chiba, 263-8522, Japan

    Hidefumi Kurasaka

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  1. Shuhan Hu
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  2. Hidefumi Kurasaka
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Correspondence to Shuhan Hu.

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Hu, S., Kurasaka, H. Projection of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) population at provincial level of China and analysis on the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China. J Mater Cycles Waste Manag 15, 154–170 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10163-012-0102-9

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