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Prospects

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Population Aging

Part of the book series: International Perspectives on Aging ((Int. Perspect. Aging,volume 3))

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Abstract

Chapter 16 (Prospects) focuses on overall prospects for aging societies, through an examination of general theories of long-term change and initiatives conducive to demographic and fiscal sustainability. The first part of the chapter evaluates theories concerned with homeostasis and convergence, which have been suggested as representing the future of aging societies. This leads into consideration of population stabilization both as a policy goal and as a description of the current trajectories of a number of developed countries. The chapter argues that stabilization of national age structures is neither attainable nor desirable immediately in aging populations. The section on demographic sustainability examines obstacles to stabilization, illustrated with reference to Japan, as well as the positive roles of immigration policies and family policies. Fiscal sustainability is discussed mainly in terms of the need to reduce government debt burdens, restructure and diversify pension schemes and foster higher labour force participation and productivity. Population aging poses significant economic challenges even for countries with strong economies. In view of this, and more particularly because financial support for older people is already failing in many countries, the penultimate section of the chapter discusses the likelihood of an expanded role for Third Sector organizations.

… the decline of the labour force poses a far greater threat than ageing alone. (Heigl 2004: 287)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Sociology Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, A.C.T, 0200, Australia

    Donald T. Rowland

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Rowland, D.T. (2012). Prospects. In: Population Aging. International Perspectives on Aging, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4050-1_16

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