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Long-term modeling of large-scale nutrient cycles in the entire Baltic Sea

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Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems

Part of the book series: Developments in Hydrobiology ((DIHY,volume 207))

Abstract

Management of eutrophication in marine ecosystems requires a good understanding of nutrient cycles at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Here, it is shown that the biogeochemical processes controlling large-scale eutrophication of the Baltic Sea can be described with a fairly aggregated model: simple as necessary Baltic long-term large scale (SANBALTS). This model simulates the dynamics of nitrogen, phosphorus, and silica driven by the external inputs, the major physical transports, and the internal biogeochemical fluxes within the seven major sub-basins. In a long-term hindcast (1970–2003), the model outputs reasonably matched observed concentrations and fluxes. The model is also tested in a scenario where nutrient inputs are reduced to levels that existed over 100 years ago. The simulated response of the Baltic Sea trophic state to this very large reduction is verified by a similar simulation made with a much more complex processoriented model. Both models indicate that after initial, rather rapid changes the system goes into much slower evolution, and nutrient cycles would not become balanced even after 130 years.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Baltic Nest Institute and Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden

    Oleg P. Savchuk & Fredrik Wulff

Authors
  1. Oleg P. Savchuk
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  2. Fredrik Wulff
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. DHI, Agern Allé 5, 2970, Hørsholm, Denmark

    J. H. Andersen

  2. GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden

    D. J. Conley

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Savchuk, O.P., Wulff, F. (2009). Long-term modeling of large-scale nutrient cycles in the entire Baltic Sea. In: Andersen, J.H., Conley, D.J. (eds) Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems. Developments in Hydrobiology, vol 207. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3385-7_18

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