Future Trends in the Incidence of Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma in White Populations

Abstract

The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) has been increasing steadily over the past 40 years in virtually all white populations (MacLennan et al, 1992; Horn-Ross et al 1991; Gallagher et al 1990). Recently, encouraging mortality data has emerged, suggesting that younger cohorts in the United States and Australia will experience more favorable death rates from CMM than are currently seen in older generations (Roush et al 1992; Giles et al. 1996). Treatment options have not improved substantially, however, and the potential decline in mortality is likely due to early diagnosis, resulting in a shift to shallower lesions. The question remains, however, whether these recent gains will be nullified by further increases in incidence into the 21st century. In order to investigate longer term prospects for this disease, projections have been made utilizing sex- and age cohort-specific analysis of melanoma incidence in British Columbia, Canada, from 1973 to 1994.