Qualitative and Quantitative Comparisons of Agent-Based and Cell-Based Synthesis Estimation Methods of Base-Year Data for Land-Use Microsimulations

Abstract

Land-use microsimulation is becoming an indispensable function in a planning support system for sustainable urban development because it provides the detailed information necessary for decision making on emerging issues at the household or firm level. In land-use microsimulations, there are two approaches for estimating base-year micro-data: cell-based population synthesis, which generally uses the iterative proportional fitting method, and agent-based methods. This chapter compares these two methods qualitatively and quantitatively. The qualitative comparison shows that neither one is superior in every aspect. The cell-based method is preferred when the microsimulation deals with data sufficiently simple, while the agent-based method is preferred when accurate and/or numerous micro-data attributes are demanded. Similarly, the quantitative comparison based on a goodness-of-fit evaluation does not show a single superior method for all applications. These findings suggest a way for selecting a better method based on the conditions of the microsimulation model and the purpose of its application.