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Identifying the Occurrence Time of an Impending Mainshock

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Natural Time Analysis: The New View of Time

Part of the book series: Springer Praxis Books ((GEOPHYS))

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Abstract

Natural time enables the determination of the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake since it can identify when a complex system approaches a critical point. Considering that the detection of a SES activity signifies that the system enters the critical regime, the small earthquakes that occur (in the region candidate to suffer the mainshock) after the SES detection are analyzed in natural time. It was found that the variance k1 of natural time becomes equal to 0.070 (which manifests the approach to the critical point) usually a few days to around one week before the mainshock. This, which exhibits spatial as well as magnitude threshold invariance, has been observed to date for all major earthquakes that occurred in Greece since the introduction of the natural time concept in 2001 (note that it has been also ascertained in retrospect for the two major earthquakes in Greece during the previous decade, i.e., in the 1990s). For example, the occurrence time of the Mw6.9 earthquake on February 14, 2008, which is the strongest earthquake in Greece during the last 28 years, was announced as imminent on February 10, 2008. The procedure has been also ascertained in the case of the volcanic-seismic swarm activity in 2000 in the Izu island region in Japan as well as of the Ms7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake in California in 1989.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Professor Panayiotis A. Varotsos, Dr. Nicholas V. Sarlis & Dr. Efthimios S. Skordas

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  1. Professor Panayiotis A. Varotsos
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  2. Dr. Nicholas V. Sarlis
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  3. Dr. Efthimios S. Skordas
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Varotsos, P.A., Sarlis, N.V., Skordas, E.S. (2011). Identifying the Occurrence Time of an Impending Mainshock. In: Natural Time Analysis: The New View of Time. Springer Praxis Books(). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-16449-1_7

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