Retrospective geomatic landscape modelling. A probabilistic approach

Abstract

Geographic information systems include, among a variety of analytical functions, those intended for spatial-temporal modelling and decision support, particularly multi criteria evaluation and multi objective evaluation. These tools are particularly useful for simulation scenarios because of their reproducibility of results and the possibility to define the amount of trade off and risk exists in the decision process. This paper focuses on the methodology and results obtained for retrospective land use modelling in the Alpujarra Alta Granadina (Andalusia, Spain) for the 16th, 18th and 19th century.

A multi criteria evaluation produces many land use potential maps, also called suitability maps, one for every objective (land use category). It is based on a chronological set of land use maps and the criteria, which are considered responsible for the observed changes and their estimates for agricultural use. After that, the multi objective evaluation resolves the incompatibilities between the potentials uses for the chronological set (1572, 1752, 1855/61), and rebuilt probabilistic historical maps based on the statistical known area. The results show the probable location for a specific use and allow the testing of the methodology and the specification of some contributions and limits. A complete validation, however, is not possible due to a lack of comparable historical documents.