Abstract
This chapter examines the impact of expanding biofuels production and use on agricultural commodity markets. It also examines the continued biofuels expansion under declining energy prices. The analysis uses a Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model, a dynamic multi-commodity, multi-country global trade model of the agriculture sector to analyze the interaction between biofuel, crop, and livestock sectors. The ability of countries to achieve their energy goals will be affected by future direction of petroleum prices. A 30% decline in petroleum prices (absent of mandates) would result in rapid decline in biofuel use worldwide accompanied by a decline in feedstock and biofuel prices.
Disclaimer: The views and findings reported in this chapter are solely those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views, positions, or other findings of the USDA. The chapter was not reviewed or approved by any agency of the USDA.
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Peters, M., Stillman, R., Somwaru, A. (2010). Biofuels Expansion in a Changing Economic Environment: A Global Modeling Perspective. In: Ball, V., Fanfani, R., Gutierrez, L. (eds) The Economic Impact of Public Support to Agriculture. Studies in Productivity and Efficiency, vol 7. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6385-7_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6385-7_8
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