Abstract
Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report examines the known effects and relationships of these and other climate change variables on coasts of the U.S. It also describes how several major sectors of the U.S. economy are likely to be affected as well as the diversity of adaptation options that are either being considered or already implemented in coastal regions.
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Notes
- 1.
NOAA maintains a list of “NOAA Coastal Watershed Counties,” derived from quantitative associations with NOAA coastal watersheds and USGS coastal cataloging units as delineated in the NOAA Coastal Assessment Framework, or CAF (http://coastalgeospatial.noaa.gov/). A county is considered a coastal watershed county, having a substantial watershed-based impact on coastal and ocean resources, if one of the following criteria is met: (1) at a minimum, 15 percent of the county’s total land area is located in a coastal watershed; or (2) a portion of or an entire county accounts for at least 15 percent of a coastal USGS 8-digit cataloging unit. Exceptions to this 15-percent rule include Cook and Lake Counties in Illinois, Allan Parish, LA; Highlands, FL; and Greene, NC; these are included as NOAA coastal watershed counties. The NOAA Coastal Assessment Framework does not include Alaska or Hawaii; however, all counties, called boroughs and census areas in Alaska, that contain the intersection of the shoreline of the 2010 Census County Boundary and a USGS cataloging unit are included as NOAA Coastal Watershed Counties. This exception affects all 5 counties in Hawaii and 25 counties in Alaska.
- 2.
In 2000 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a set of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios; Nakićenović et al., 2000). These scenarios estimate the emissions resulting from a range of projections for future population, demographics, technology, and energy use. The 2013 NCA will base its projections of climate change and impacts primarily on the “A2” and “B1” SRES scenarios. The A2 family of scenarios assumes a world of nations that operate independently, with slow technological development and continuously increasing population. Under the A2 higher emissions scenario, the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide reaches about 850 ppm by 2100. The B1 lower-emissions scenario represents a world with high economic growth and a global population that peaks mid-century and then declines. This scenario includes a shift to less fossil fuel-intensive industries and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. In the B1 scenario the emissions of greenhouse gases peak around mid-century and then decline, though atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reach 550 ppm by 2100, which is approximately double pre-industrial levels (Nakićenović et al., 2000).
- 3.
The Other Services sector includes establishments engaged in providing services not specifically provided for elsewhere in the North American Industry Classification System. Examples of establishments in this sector are equipment and machinery repairing, promoting or administering religious activities, advocacy, and providing dry cleaning and laundry services, personal care services, death care services, pet care services, photofinishing services, and temporary parking services (OMB, 2007). Greater specialization in the leisure and hospitality service sector reflects the importance of coasts for tourism and recreation. Each coastal state hosts more than one million coastal visitors each year (Pendleton, 2008).
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Culver, M., Bierwagen, B., Burkett, V., Cantral, R., Davidson, M.A., Stockdon, H. (2012). Introduction and Context. In: Burkett, V., Davidson, M. (eds) Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities. NCA Regional Input Reports. Island Press, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-460-4_1
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