Russia and Georgia — From Confrontation to War: What is Next?

Abstract

The South Caucasus is the most unstable CIS region and Georgia is the most unstable ‘weak state’ of that region, today as well as historically; traditionally it was a buffer against Turkey and Persia in the early 19th century (Trenin, 2002, pp. 47, 169 and 179–80). Georgia was united in the 12th century, before the Muscovy Russian state (but after the Kievan state), but, like Kievan Russia, was conquered by the Mongols in the 13th century. From the 15th century Georgia was dominated by Turkey and Persia, and sought Russian protection. Russia conquered Georgia in the first half of the 19th century. With the Russian revolution and the ensuing civil war, Georgian self-determination was regained in 1918, but lasted only until 1921, when the Red Army invasion forced Georgia into joining Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Transcaucasus Republic of the USSR (in 1922). Georgia became a Soviet Socialist Republic in 1936 and regained some of its cultural autonomy, but, as happened with the treatment of other borders in the Caucasus, Georgian borders also included non-Georgian peoples and cultures (such as Abkhazians and Ossetians). Today Georgia borders on violence-ridden parts of southern Russia — Chechnya, North Ossetia, and Dagestan. Georgia’s post-Soviet history has been stormy, worth telling because of its many connections with the Russian-Georgian relationship itself. The pivotal part is Abkhazia (located at the eastern shores of the Black Sea), where armed clashes took place between Georgians and Abkhazians as early as 1989, also involving Soviet troops stationed in Abkhazia. In 1990 Abkhazia opted for independence from Georgia and chose its own president. In December 1991, armed clashes broke out in the Georgian capital, and Soviet forces were engaged.