The Ukraine Crisis: Implications for Poland’s Security

Abstract

The emerging of the multipolar world order in the early 21st century has led to a clash between the West and Russia in Ukraine. At the end of 2013/beginning of 2014, the post-Cold War process by which the West’s influence extended to Central and Eastern Europe—and Russia’s simultaneous opposition to it—produced in Ukraine a crisis which escalated rapidly. Politically and culturally, Ukraine is divided almost in half, with a pro-Western orientation prevailing in the western part of the country, and a pro-Russian outlook being predominant in its eastern part.¹ In the post-Cold War period, this cleavage made for a lack of clear priorities in Ukrainian foreign policy. While Central European countries, including the Baltic States, set a course for the West, thus depriving Russia of influence in this region, the course of Kyiv’s foreign policy fluctuated depending on the party in power. The changing priorities of Ukraine’s policy and a lack of internal stability exposed this country to the influence of external actors. The crisis in Ukraine has undoubtedly been caused by many factors,² but from the neorealist perspective, which forms the dominant approach in this book, it is seen as a clash between the West and Russia.³