Abstract
This concluding chapter begins by discussing Mischief Reef developments since the July 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Particular attention is given to Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) as the United States defended this red line issue while China attempted to consolidate its position. The implications of the PRC’s continued militarization of Mischief Reef are also addressed. The chapter also shows how despite extensive constructions, there are still significant vulnerabilities involved in defending the feature. It then moves on to addressing technological advances in resource exploration and extraction. The chapter also discusses very recent developments including the influence of President Rodrigo Duterte, as well as a seeming hardening of Washington’s position over the Spratlys issue. The chapter then considers the future outlook, factoring in such variables as domestic politics, economic incentives, and the policy goals and strategic objectives of the two protagonists as well as the US. China’s desire to discourage an enhanced US naval presence, and how this may contribute to a more stable quid-pro-quo relationship of engagement with Manila are also examined, as are the compelling incentives to address the dispute peacefully. Lessons learnt as well as proposals for resolving or at least managing the dispute are also featured.
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Notes
- 1.
Dowse and Bachmann explain: “Hybrid warfare is an emerging, but ill-defined notion in conflict studies. It refers to the use of unconventional methods as part of a multi-domain warfighting approach. These methods aim to disrupt and disable an opponent’s actions without engaging in open hostilities.” Dowse and Bachmann, “Explainer: What Is ‘Hybrid Warfare’.”
- 2.
These are “operations [that] may not clearly cross the threshold of war. That might be due to the ambiguity of international law, ambiguity of actions and attribution, or because the impact of the activities does not justify a response.” Ibid.
- 3.
Discussed in Chapter 6.
- 4.
Himmelman describes how this term was coined; Himmelman, “A Game of Shark and Minnow.”
- 5.
“China’s Activities,” Ministry of Defense Japan; Long, “Deep Plowing the South.”
- 6.
Ngo, “China’s A2/AD Challenge.”
- 7.
Harris, Untitled speech.
- 8.
Panda, “China Condemns US FONOP.”
- 9.
“South China Sea: USS Dewey Warship,” ABC.
- 10.
“South China Sea: US Warship,” BBC.
- 11.
Torode and Scarr, “Subi Reef, Built Up by Chinese.”
- 12.
“South China Sea: USS Dewey Warship,” ABC.
- 13.
Panda, “China Condemns US FONOP.”
- 14.
Liu, “China Deploys Airship”; Johnson, “U.S. Sends Warships.”
- 15.
Huang, “South China Sea.”
- 16.
Gordon and Page, “China Installed Military Jamming”; Morgan, “US State Dept. Calls.”
- 17.
Bondoc, “No Confirmation on Signal Jammers.”
- 18.
Torode and Scarr, “Subi Reef, Built Up by Chinese.”
- 19.
Macias, “China Quietly Installed”; Gordon and Page, “China Installed Military Jamming.”
- 20.
Torode and Scarr, “Subi Reef, Built Up by Chinese.”
- 21.
Ibid.
- 22.
Blanchard, “Duterte Aligns Philippines.”
- 23.
Johnson, “U.S. Military Has Strong Words.”
- 24.
Long, “Deep Plowing the South.”
- 25.
Esmaquel II, “Sinking of Filipino Vessel.”
- 26.
People’s Republic of China State Council Information Office, “China’s National Defense,” 7, 12.
- 27.
Liu, “China Deploys Airship”; Johnson, “U.S. Sends Warships.”
- 28.
Griffith, “Beijing May Have Built Bases.”
- 29.
Storey, “Why Doesn’t China Deploy.”
- 30.
Griffith, “Beijing May Have Built Bases.”
- 31.
Ibid.
- 32.
Long, “Deep Plowing the South”; Adomaitis, “China Leads the Race.”
- 33.
Long, “Deep Plowing the South.”
- 34.
Ibid.
- 35.
“China’s Combustible Ice Estimated,” Xinhua.
- 36.
Adomaitis, “China Leads the Race.”
- 37.
“China Sets New World Records,” Global Times.
- 38.
Long, “Deep Plowing the South”; US Dept. of State, “PRC’s Reported Sinking.”
- 39.
US Dept. of State, “PRC’s Reported Sinking.”
- 40.
Hadano and Onishi, “Vietnam Protests China’s New.”
- 41.
Long, “China Ups Ante”; Leng, “Names of Islands, Reefs.”
- 42.
“US Blasts China,” Voice of America.
- 43.
Liu, “Epidemic Hinders US Military.”
- 44.
“Manila Downplays Chinese Laser,” Radio Free Asia.
- 45.
Pompeo, “U.S. Position on Maritime Claims.”
- 46.
Duterte, “State of the Nation Address.”
- 47.
Ibid.; Sarmiento, “COVID-19: Duterte seeks China’s Help”; Venzon, “Duterte Threatens to End US Military Pact.”
- 48.
“Duterte Says Philippines Powerless,” 2020.
- 49.
Brennan, “Beijing’s South China Sea Military Bases.”
- 50.
Long, “China Warships, Fighter Jets Deployed,” 2020.
- 51.
US Dept. of State, “Briefing on Visa Restrictions for the People’s Republic of China and Commerce Department Restrictions on Chinese Corporate Entities.”
- 52.
Ibid.
- 53.
Huang, “Chinese Military Fires.”
- 54.
US Dept. of State, “China’s Empty Promises.”
- 55.
Ibid.
- 56.
Huang, “South China Sea: Why Did the PLA.”
- 57.
Simularity and AllSource Analysis, “New Construction on Mischief Reef.”
- 58.
Viray, “Photos Show More Chinese.”
- 59.
See Dzurek, “China Occupies.”
- 60.
Li, “Manila’s Termination of Military Pact.”
- 61.
Ding, “On South China Sea, Expect More”; Donnelly, “South China Sea”; Heydarian, “Biden to Follow Trump’s Lead.”
- 62.
Under the PHL’s constitution, a President can only sit for a maximum of one term consisting of six years.
- 63.
Chang, “Uncertain Prospects”; Jennings, “Why China, Once Coy”; “Asean Eyes Code of Conduct,” Philippine News Agency; Zhang, “Li Urges Speedy Consultations.”
- 64.
Zha and Valencia, “Mischief Reef: Geopolitics.”
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Fox, S. (2021). Post-Arbitration and Looking to the Future. In: Mischief Reef. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3884-8_7
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