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Continued and Serious Lockdown Could Have Minimized Many Newly Transmitted Cases of Covid-19 in the U.S.: Wavelets, Deterministic Models, and Data

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Analysis of Infectious Disease Problems (Covid-19) and Their Global Impact

Part of the book series: Infosys Science Foundation Series ((ISFM))

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Abstract

We have provided model-based estimates of Covid-19 in the U.S. during April–June 2020. The newly reported Covid-19 cases of April in the U.S. have not acquired the virus in the same month. We estimate that there was an average of 29,000/day Covid-19 cases in the U.S. transmitted from infected to susceptible during April 1–24, 2020, after adjusting for under-reported and under-diagnosed. We have provided model-based predictions of Covid-19 for the low and high range of transmission rates and with varying degrees of preventive measures including the lockdowns. We predict that even if 10% of the susceptible and 20% of the infected who were not identified as of April 30, 2020 do not adhere to proper care or do not obey lockdown, then by the end of May and by end of June 50,000 and 55,000 new cases, respectively, will emerge. These values for the months of May and June with worse adherence rates of 50% by susceptible and infected (but not identified) will be 251,000 and 511,000, respectively. Continued and serious lockdown measures could bring this average daily rate of new cases to a further low with a range of 4,300/day to 8,000/day in May.

Both the authors contributed in writing. ASRS Rao designed the study, developed the methods, models, collected data, performed analysis, computing, creating Figures and Tables, wrote the first draft. SG Krantz participated in the design, interpretation of results, and contributed in editing the draft, approving the methods. Both the authors approved the final manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling, Department of Medicine-Division of Infectious Diseases, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA

    Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao

  2. Department of Mathematics, Augusta University, Augusta, GA, 30912, USA

    Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao

  3. Department of Mathematics, Washington University in St. Louis, One Brookings Drive, Campus Box 1146, St. Louis, MO, 63130, USA

    Steven G. Krantz

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  1. Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao
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  2. Steven G. Krantz
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Correspondence to Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Anand International College of Engineering, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

    Praveen Agarwal

  2. Institute of Mathematics, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain

    Juan J. Nieto

  3. Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK

    Michael Ruzhansky

  4. Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Delfim F. M. Torres

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Rao, A.S.R.S., Krantz, S.G. (2021). Continued and Serious Lockdown Could Have Minimized Many Newly Transmitted Cases of Covid-19 in the U.S.: Wavelets, Deterministic Models, and Data. In: Agarwal, P., Nieto, J.J., Ruzhansky, M., Torres, D.F.M. (eds) Analysis of Infectious Disease Problems (Covid-19) and Their Global Impact. Infosys Science Foundation Series(). Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2450-6_1

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