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The Use of Event-Based Modeling and System-Dynamics Modeling in Accident and Disaster Investigation

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Knowledge and Systems Sciences (KSS 2018)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 949))

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Abstract

The classical accident and disaster investigation process is centered around modeling the sequence of events that lead to failure. In the Big Data Era, such event-based analyses benefit from the diverse sources of accident-related data and powerful data analytics techniques. However, it is argued that a system-dynamics perspective is also crucial in understanding the dynamic evolution of complex accident and disaster systems. In this paper, the Integrated Event-Based Modeling and System-Dynamics Modeling (EBSD) Framework for Accident Investigation using Big Data Analytics is proposed, and a case study of the 2015 Tianjin Port Fire and Explosion is presented to demonstrate its potential application. The EBSD Framework provides assistance to investigators in extracting the key factors in the disaster and accident system through modeling and simulation, and thus have further implication in disaster and accident management.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    All parameters and equations used in the simulation are presented in the Appendix.

References

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Acknowledgement

We want to acknowledge Dr. Cleotilde Gonzalez in introducing the concepts and research methodologies of task analysis and system dynamics. We also want to thank Erin McCormick for helping us constructing the CLDs and SFDs. The equations and simulations wouldn’t have worked without them.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA

    Xiangting Chen

  2. Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, Guangdong, China

    Xiao Liu

Authors
  1. Xiangting Chen
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  2. Xiao Liu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiangting Chen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Jian Chen

  2. Graduate School of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Bunkyō, Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Yuji Yamada

  3. Faculty of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tokyo, Japan

    Mina Ryoke

  4. Institute of Systems Science, CAS Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences, Beijing, China

    Xijin Tang

Appendix: Table of Equations and Parameters

Appendix: Table of Equations and Parameters

figure a

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Chen, X., Liu, X. (2018). The Use of Event-Based Modeling and System-Dynamics Modeling in Accident and Disaster Investigation. In: Chen, J., Yamada, Y., Ryoke, M., Tang, X. (eds) Knowledge and Systems Sciences. KSS 2018. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 949. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3149-7_8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-3149-7_8

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-13-3148-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-13-3149-7

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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