Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Application of Box-Jenkins Model in Predicting Road Traffic Crashes in Nigeria

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Transactions on Engineering Technologies (WCECS 2017)

Included in the following conference series:

  • 474 Accesses

Abstract

The current road traffic accident (RTA) trends in Nigeria had not been modelled. Modelling the pattern of RTAs would assist in estimating future occurrences. The aim of this work is to develop a mathematical model capable of forecasting road traffic accident cases in Nigeria. The method adopted was a time series analysis of Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). RTA data from the Federal Road Safety Corps FRSC , Abuja, were employed in analysing a 57-year accidents time series from 1960–2016. Dual statistical software namely: Microsoft Excel 2010 and SPSS 16.0 versions were employed in the computation and to ascertain the adequacy of the predictive model developed. From the results obtained, ARIMA (1, 1, 1)1 model fit the pattern of road traffic accident cases in Nigeria. The result obtained was used to assess the performance of FRSC on road traffic casualty reduction in Nigeria. A 5-year forecast of road traffic accident occurrences from 2017 to 2021 was estimated. It was observed that, if the current situation remains, road traffic accident cases and road traffic casualties annually in Nigeria would approximate 8000–12,000 and 34,000–40,000, respectively. The outcome of this research would be very useful to Road Safety Agencies and Nigeria Government in policy formulations and implementation, aimed at road traffic accident prevention and control in Nigeria.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. B.U. Oreko, S. Okiy, An Intervention Theoretic Modelling Approach on the Performance Assessment of Federal Road Safety Corps in Road Traffic Casualty Reduction in Nigeria, in Lecture Notes in Engineering and Computer Science: Proceedings of The World Congress On Engineering and Computer Science 2017, 25–27 October, 2017, San Francisco, USA, pp 771–776

    Google Scholar 

  2. B.U. Oreko, C.C. Nwobi-Okoye, S, Okiy and A.C. Igboanugo, Modelling the Impact of Intervention Measures on Total Accident Cases in Nigeria Using Box-Jenkins Methodology: A Case Study of Federal Road Safety Commission, vol. 4:1345043 (Cogent Engineering, part of Taylor & Francis Group, 2017). ISSN 2331-1916

    Google Scholar 

  3. B.U. Oreko, C.C. Nwobi-Okoye, S, Okiy and A.C. Igboanugo, A Multivariate Linear Regression Theoretic Approach to Modelling Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria. J. Niger. Assoc. Math. Phys. 35, 193–200 (2017) ISSN 1116-4336

    Google Scholar 

  4. A.C. Igboanugo, E.F. Ekheumelo, Intervention analysis of road traffic accident, advance material research, 18–19, 375-382 (2007); C.C. Nwobi-Okoye, Game theoretic analysis of road traffic problems in Nigeria. Afr. Res. Rev. 5(3), 184-199 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  5. J. Ohakwe, I.S. Iwueze, D.C. Chikezie, Analysis of road traffic accidents in Nigeria: a case study of Obinze/Nekede/Iheagwa road in Imo State, Southeastern Nigeria. Asian J. Appl. Sci. 4, 166–175 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. N. Eke, E.N. Etubu, S.O. Nwosu, Road accident mortalities in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. J. Forensic Med. Toxicol. 1(2) (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  7. F.J. Jegede, Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic accidents in Oyo State, Nigeria. Accid. Anal. Prev. 24(2), 149–155 (1988)

    Google Scholar 

  8. O.E, Charles-Owaba, K.A. Adebiyi, On the performance of the FRSC: the case with the Oyo State sector command. Niger. J. Eng. Manag. 2(3), 50–56 (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  9. S.O. Ismaila, O.G. Akanbi, N.O. Adekunle, O.E. Charles-Owaba, Current trends of vehicular accidents in Nigeria. Pac. J. Sci. Technol. 10(2), 262–268 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  10. O.E. Afamdi, Trends and characteristics of road traffic accidents in Nigeria. J. Accid. Anal. Prev. 106(1), 27–29 (1986)

    Google Scholar 

  11. S.E. Asogwa, C.N. Obionu, Urban pedestrian accidents and the efficiency of counter measure. Central Afr. J. Med. 31, 62–65. PubMed (1986)

    Google Scholar 

  12. K.U. Nnadi, C.C. Ibe, An econometric study of the road safety impact of Nigeria’s federal road safety commission. Int. J. Soft Comput. 2(2), 279–284 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Federal Road Safety Corps, Annual Report, Abuja (2014): FRSC. www.frsc.gov.ng. Assessed on 4 Dec 2015

  14. Federal Road Safety Corps Annual Report, Abuja (2015): FRSC. www.frsc.gov.ng. Assessed on 19 Nov 2016

  15. Federal Road Safety Corps Annual Report 2016, Abuja: FRSC. www.frsc.gov.ng. Assessed on 5 Sept 2017

  16. S.A. De-Lurgio, Forecasting Principle and Applications (McGraw-Hill Publishers, ISBN, 1998), p. 0071159983

    Google Scholar 

  17. G. Box, G. Jenkins, C. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 4th edn. (Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 2008). ISBN-13: 978-0130607744

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Petroleum Resources, Effurun, Nigeria

    Benjamin Ufuoma Oreko

  2. Department of Welding Engineering and Offshore Technology, Petroleum Training Institute, Effurun, Nigeria

    Stanley Okiy

Authors
  1. Benjamin Ufuoma Oreko
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Stanley Okiy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Benjamin Ufuoma Oreko .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. International Association of Engineers, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

    Sio-Iong Ao

  2. Department of Computer and Communication, Daegu Catholic University, Daegu, Korea (Republic of)

    Haeng Kon Kim

  3. University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA, USA

    Mahyar A. Amouzegar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2019 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Oreko, B.U., Okiy, S. (2019). Application of Box-Jenkins Model in Predicting Road Traffic Crashes in Nigeria. In: Ao, SI., Kim, H., Amouzegar, M. (eds) Transactions on Engineering Technologies. WCECS 2017. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2191-7_12

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2191-7_12

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-13-2190-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-13-2191-7

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation