Abstract
Considering the time-varying characteristics of Earth rotation parameters (ERP) time-series, we attempted to improve the prediction accuracy of ERP using a simple differencing technique. ERP data are first differenced between adjacent epochs. Subsequently the predictions of differenced ERP are generate by means of the combination of (1) least squares (LS) extrapolation of models for Chandler, annual and semi-annual wobbles and for the linear trend, and (2) autoregressive moving average (ARMA) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + ARMA). The results show that the accuracy of predictions is better than that by the conventional method, especially for short- and long-term predictions. Moreover, the significant enhancement can be found in the case of the UT1-UTC predictions in comparison with the prediction of pole coordinates.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Gambis D, Luzum B (2011) Earth rotation monitoring, UT1 determination and prediction. Metrologia 48:165–170
Niedzieiski T, Kosek W (2008) Prediction of UT1-UTC, LOD and AAM by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods. J Geodesy 82:83–92
Sun ZZ, Xu TH (2012) Prediction of Earth rotation parameters based on improved weighted least squares and autoregressive model. Geodesy and Geodynamics 3:57–64
Guo JY, Li YB, Dai CL et al (2013) A technique to improve the accuracy of Earth orientation prediction algorithms based on least squares extrapolation. J Geodyn 70:36–48
Lei Y, Zhao DN, Cai HB (2015) Prediction of length-of-day using extreme learning machine. Geodesy and Geodynamics 6:151–159
Xu XQ, Zhou YH (2015) EOP prediction using least square fitting and autoregressive filter over optimized data intervals. J Geodyn 56:2248–2253
George EPB, Gwilym MJ, Gregory CR (2008) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Wiley, Hoboken
Gerard P, Brain L (2011) IERS Conventions (2010). Verlag des Bundesamts für Kartographie und Geodasie, Frankfurt am Main
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer Science+Business Media Singapore
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lei, Y., Cai, H., Zhao, D. (2016). A Simple Differencing Technology to Improve Prediction Accuracy of Earth Rotation Parameters. In: Sun, J., Liu, J., Fan, S., Wang, F. (eds) China Satellite Navigation Conference (CSNC) 2016 Proceedings: Volume III. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 390. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0940-2_18
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0940-2_18
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-0939-6
Online ISBN: 978-981-10-0940-2
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)