Abstract
Tinbergen’s presentation of the first fully fledged macroeconomic model for the Netherlands at the annual meeting of the Netherlands Economic Association in 1936 marks the start of model based policy analysis (Tinbergen, 1936). The major aim of this model — the first empirical policy model in the world — was a description of the business cycle and an evaluation of various measures of anticyclical policy. It is remarkable and illustrative for Tinbergen’s research philosophy that he not only constructed a completely new type of model, but also used it for practical policy purposes. In what is later called an impulse analysis, he calculated the effects of policy measures on employment and the position of the balance of payments. It is interesting to note that Tinbergen, in his policy simulations, was disobedient to the Board of the Netherlands Economic Association who had asked him not to interfere in the ongoing lively debate in the Netherlands on whether to fix the exchange rate to the golden standard or to devalue. The authors of the addresses to the meeting were explicitly asked to leave the possibility of a devaluation out of the discussion, yet Tinbergen calculated the effects of a devaluation and concluded that it would be much more favourable to employment than a deflationary decrease in wages.
Useful comments on previous versions by two referees and the editors are gratefully acknowledged.
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Den Butter, F.A.G. (1998). Macroeconomic modelling for sustainable development: the Dutch experience. In: van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., Hofkes, M.W. (eds) Theory and Implementation of Economic Models for Sustainable Development. Economy & Environment, vol 15. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3511-7_12
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