Abstract
Moderate-size earthquakes occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California in 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and in 1966. The earlier Parkfield earthquakes were similar to the 1966 event, leading to the hypothesis of a characteristic Parkfield earthquake with recurring, recognizable source features. A simple recurrence model that explains most of the historic seismicity near Parkfield implies that the next characteristic Parkfield earthquake will occur within a ten year time window centered on 1987–1988. A Parkfield Prediction Experiment, designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process is underway. Observations and reports of anomalous seismicity and aseismic slip preceding the last characteristic earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis for the design of the Parkfield Prediction Experiment; other design considerations involve testing models of the deformation process leading to failure.
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Bakun, W.H., Lindh, A.G. (1985). The Parkfield, California, Prediction Experiment. In: Kisslinger, C., Rikitake, T. (eds) Practical Approaches to Earthquake Prediction and Warning. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2738-9_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2738-9_5
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