Abstract
This paper compares the performances of kriging vs simulation algorithms for delineating areas potentially contaminated by lead, and assessing the economic impact of declaring these areas safe (possible ill health). The comparison of predictions with actual topsoil lead concentrations at test locations shows that ordinary kriging underestimates large concentrations and the corresponding health costs. Better results are obtained using sequential indicator simulation which allows assessment of the uncertainty about health costs. Accounting for soft information as provided by a geological map is shown to reduce the financial loss attached to a wrong classification of zones as contaminated or safe.
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© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Goovaerts, P. (1997). Kriging vs Stochastic Simulation for Risk Analysis in Soil Contamination. In: Soares, A., Gómez-Hernandez, J., Froidevaux, R. (eds) geoENV I — Geostatistics for Environmental Applications. Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1675-8_21
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1675-8_21
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
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