Abstract
Computer climate models have done a reasonable job in simulating many aspects of the climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Based on the success of these models in simulation the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre has been testing the use of models to predict the El Niño — Southern Oscillation and to predict Australian rainfall. These models are run every month, in “real time”, so examination of the skill of their forecasts provides a good test of the models. We will discuss the accuracy of the model forecasts, especially through the 1997/98 El Niño. Note that the forecasts discussed here are all “operational” forecasts, ie they are prepared and published in “real-time” — this is a more stringent and realistic test of the credibility of the forecasts than the usual research approach of examining “hindcasts”.
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Nicholls, N., Frederiksen, C., Kleeman, R. (2000). Operational Experience with Climate Model Predictions. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C. (eds) Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems. Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_8
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