Abstract
Resource scarcity, and in particular the struggle for territory, is a traditional source of conflict and war. After the end of the Cold War in particular, many have suggested that environmental degradation will exacerbate scarcities and become an additional source of armed conflict. This chapter argues that although the potential for environmental conflict needs to be taken seriously, the current wave of democratization leaves room for much greater optimism. Democracies rarely, if ever, fight one another and civil war is exceedingly unlikely in established democracies. These regularies are unlikely to be reversed even in the face of environmental degradation and resource competition. On the contrary, competition for resources between democracies frequently leads to increased cooperation. In addition, democracies are — everything else being equal — likely to have more enlightened environmental policies, so that the chance of serious environmental degradation in a democracy is less than in an autocracy. This further decreases the probability that democracies will become embroiled in violent conflict internally or externally as a result of environmental degradation.
I am grateful to the US Institute of Peace for financial support and to Norunn Grande, Håvard Hegre, Cecilie Sundby, and Bjørn Otto Sverdrup for research assistance. I would also like to acknowledge comments and suggestions from these and other present and former colleagues at PRIO, particularly Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, Wenche Hauge, and Dan Smith. Portions of the first section draw on work previously published in Gleditsch (1994).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bächler, Günther; Volker Böge, Stefan Klötzli, Stephan Libiszewski & Kurt R. Spillmann, 1996. Kriegsursache Umweltzerztörung. Ökologische Konflikte in der Dritten Welt und Wege ihrer friedlichen Bearbeitung [Environmental Destruction as a Cause of War. Ecological Conflicts in the Third World and Peaceful Ways of Resolving Them]. Three volumes. Zurich: Rilegger.
Bailey, Jennifer L., 1996. Demokrati som politisk betingelse for miljovern’ [Democracy as a Political Precondition for Environmental Protection], Internasjonal Politikk, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 311–330.
Beaumont, Peter, 1997, Peter, 1997. Water and Armed Conflict in the Middle East — Fantasy or Reality?’, ch. 21 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Bremer, Stuart, 1992. Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816–1965’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 36, no. 2, June, pp. 309–341.
Bremer, Stuart; J. David Singer & Urs Luterbacher, 1973. The Population Density and War Proneness of European Nations, 1816–1965’, Comparative Political Studies, vol. 6, no. 3, October, pp. 329–348. [Reprinted as ch. 8, pp. 189–207 in J. David Singer et al. Explaining War: Selected Papers from the Correlates of War Project. Beverly Hills, CA & London: SAGE.]
Brock, Lothar, 1991. Peace through Parks: The Environment on the Peace Research Agenda’, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 28, no. 4, November, pp. 407–423.
Choucri, Nazli & Robert North, 1975. Nations in Conflict. San Francisco, CA: Freeman.
Crawford, James, 1993. Democracy and International Law’, British Year Book of International Law, pp. 117–133.
Deudney, Daniel, 1991. Environment and Security: Muddled Thinking’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 47, no. 3, April, pp. 22–28.
Diehl, Paul F., guest ed., 1998. Special Issue on Conflict and the Environment’, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 35, in preparation.
Easterbrook, Gregg, 1995. A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism. New York, etc.: Viking Penguin.
Ellingsen, Tanja, 1996. Colourful Community or Ethnic Witches’ Brew? Political Regime and Armed Conflict during and after the Cold War’, paper presented to the 37th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 16–20 April.
Ellingsen, Tanja & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 1997. Democracy and Armed Conflict in the Third World’, pp. 69–81 in Ketil Volden & Dan Smith, eds. Causes of Conflict in the Third World. Oslo: North/-South Coalition & International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO).
Galtung, Johan, 1982. Environment, Development and Military Activity: Towards Alternative Security Doctrines. Oslo: Norwegian University Press.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 1992. Conversion and the Environment: Proceedings of a Seminar in Perm, Russia, 24–27 November 1991. PRIO Report, no. 2, May.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 1994. Conversion and the Environment’, ch. 7, pp. 131–154 in Jyrki Käkönen, ed. Green Security or Militarized Environment? Aldershot & Brookfield, VT: Dartmouth.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, 1997a. Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature’, paper presented to the 38th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 18–22 March; forthcoming in Diehl, 1998. [An earlier version was presented to the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Bolkesjo, Norway, 12–16 June 1996, under the title Six Pitfalls of Research on Conflict and the Environment’.]
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, ed., 1997b. Conflict and the Environment. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Adne Cappelen & Olav Bjerkholt, 1994. The Wages of Peace. Disarmament in a Small Industrialized Economy. London, etc.: SAGE.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Hâvard Hegre, 1997. Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 41, no. 2, April, pp. 283–310.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Bjorn Otto Sverdrup, 1996. Democracy and the Environment’, paper presented to the Fourth National Conference in Political Science, Geilo, 8–9 January. An earlier version was presented to the 35th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, 21–25 February 1995.
Goertz, Gary & Paul F. Diehl, 1992. Territorial Changes and International Conflict. London & New York: Routledge.
Hammarström, Mats, 1986. Securing Resources by Force: The Need for Raw Materials and Military Intervention by Major Powers in Less Developed Countries. Report no. 27, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.
Hammarström, Mats, 1997, Mats, 1997. Military Conflict and Mineral Supplies: Results Relevant to Wider Resource Issues’, ch. 8 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Hardin, Garrett, 1968. The Tragedy of the Commons’, Science, vol. 162, pp. 1243–1248.
Hauge, Wenche & Tanja Ellingsen, 1997. Environmental Change and Civil War: A Multivariate Approach’, paper presented to the 38th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 18–22 March; forthcoming in Diehl, 1998. [An earlier version was presented to the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Bolkesje, Norway, 12–16 June 1996.]
Hegre, Hâvard; Tanja Ellingsen, Monica Jakobsen, Arvid Raknerud & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 1997. Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Democratization and Civil War 1834–1992’, paper presented to the 38th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 18–22 March.
Holst, Johan Jurgen, 1989. Security and the Environment: A Preliminary Exploration’, Bulletin of Peace Proposals’, vol. 20, no. 2, June, pp. 123–128.
Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., 1991. On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict’, International Security, vol. 16, no. 2, Fall, pp. 76–116. [Reprinted, pp. 43–83 in Sean Lynn-Jones & Steven E. Miller, eds., 1995. Global Dangers. Changing Dimensions of International Security. Cambridge, MA & London: MIT Press].
Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 1994. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases’, International Security, vol. 19, no. 1, Summer, pp. 5–40. [Reprinted, pp. 144–179 in Sean Lynn-Jones & Steven E. Miller, eds., 1995. Global Dangers. Changing Dimensions of International Security. Cambridge, MA & London: MIT Press].
Howard, Philip & Thomas Homer-Dixon, 1995. Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Chiapas, Mexico. Toronto: Project on Environment, Population, and Security, University College, University of Toronto & Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Huntington, Samuel P., 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK & London: University of Oklahoma Press. [Paperback edition, 1993.]
Huth, Paul K., 1996. Standing Your Ground. Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Jakobsen, Monica, 1996. Peace and Prosperity or Democratic Chaos? Political Transitions and Civil War, 1945–92’, paper presented to the 37th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, 16–20 April.
Kaffka, Alexander V., 1997. Threats to Security: Environmental Degradation in the Former Soviet Union’, eh. 11 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Kaplan, Robert, 1994. The Coming Anarchy’, Atlantic Monthly, vol. 273, no. 2, February, pp. 44–76.
Kelly, Kimberley & Thomas Homer-Dixon, 1995. Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Gaza. Toronto: Project on Environment, Population, and Security, University College, University of Toronto & Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Klötzli, Stefan, 1997, Stefan, 1997. The “Aral Sea Syndrome” and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: Opportunity or Obstacle?’, ch. 25 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
LaFeber, Walter, 1980. America, Russia, and the Cold War 1945–1980,fourth ed. New York: Wiley. [First ed. published in 1967.]
Levy, Marc A., 1995. Is the Environment a National Security Issue?’, International Security, vol. 20, no. 2, Fall, pp. 35–62.
Libiszewski, Stephan, 1997, Stephan, 1997. Integrating Political and Technical Approaches: Lessons from the Israeli-Jordanian Water Negotiations’, ch. 23 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Lipschutz, Ronnie D. & John P. Holdren, 1990. Crossing Borders: Resource Flows, the Global Environment, and International Security’, Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 21, no. 2, June, pp. 121133.
Llamas, M. Ramón, 1997. Ramón, 1997. Transboundary Water Resources in the Iberian Peninsula’, ch. 20 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Lodgaard, Sverre, 1992. Environmental Security, World Order, and Environmental Conflict Resolution’, ch. 7, pp. 115–136 in Gleditsch, 1992.
Lonergan, Steve, 1997, Steve, 1997. Water Resources and Conflict: Examples from the Middle East’, ch. 22 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
McMichael, Anthony J., 1993. Planetary Overload. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [Quotation is from Canto paperback edition, 1995.]
Mansfield, Edward D. & Jack Snyder, 1995. Democratization and the Danger of War’, International Security, vol. 20, no. 1, Summer, pp. 5–38.
Maoz, Zeev & Bruce Russett, 1993. Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace 1946–86’, American Political Science Review, vol. 87, no. 3, September, pp. 624–638.
Midlarsky, Manus I., ed., 1989. Handbook of War Studies. Boston, MA: Unw in Hyman.
Mueller, John, 1989. Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. New York: Basic Books. [Paperback edition with a new preface, 1990.
Muller, Edward N. & Erich Weede, 1990. Cross National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 34, no. 4, December, pp. 624–651.
Myers, Norman, 1996. Ultimate Security: The Environmental Basis of Political Stability. Washington, DC & Covelo, CA: Island Press.
Opschoor, Johannes, 1989. North-South Trade, Resource Degradation and Economic Security’, Bulletin of Peace Proposals, vol. 20, no. 2, June, pp. 135–142.
Payne, Rodger A., 1995. Freedom and the Environment’, Journal of Democracy, vol. 6, no. 3, July, pp. 41–55.
Percival, Valerie & Thomas Homer-Dixon, 1995. Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of South Africa. Toronto: Project on Environment, Population, and Security, University College, University of Toronto & Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science. [Revised version to appear in Diehl, 1998 ].
Renner, Michael; Mario Pianta & Cinzia Franchi, 1991. International Conflict and Environmental Degradation’, ch. 5, pp. 108–128 in Raimo Väyrynen, ed. New Directions in Conflict Theory: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Transformation. London: SAGE, in association with the International Social Science Council.
Russett, Bruce, 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Simon, Julian L., 1989. Lebensraum: Paradoxically, Population Growth May Eventually End Wars’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 33, no.1, March, pp.164–180.
Simon, Julian L., 1996. The Ultimate Resource 2. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Soroos, Marvin S., 1997, Marvin S., 1997. The Turbot War: Resolution of an International Fishery Dispute’, ch. 15 in Gleditsch, 1997b.
Tir, Jaroslav & Paul F. Diehl, 1996. Diehl, 1996. Population Pressures and International Conflict’, paper presented to the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, Bolkesje, Norway, 12–16 June; forthcoming in Diehl, 1998.
Vasquez, John, 1993. The War Puzzle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Wallensteen, Peter & Margareta Sollenberg, 1996. ‘And End to International War?’ Journal of Peace Research, vol. 33, no. 3, August, pp. 353–370.
Ward, Michael D. & Kristian S. Gleditsch, 1997. Democratizing for Peace’, paper presented to the 38th Annual Conference of the International Studies Association, Toronto, 18–22 March.
Westing, Arthur H., ed., 1986. Global Resources and International Conflict: Environmental Factors in Strategic Policy and Action. Oxford: Oxford University Press, for Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Gleditsch, N.P. (1997). Environmental Conflict and the Democratic Peace. In: Gleditsch, N.P. (eds) Conflict and the Environment. NATO ASI Series, vol 33. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8947-5_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8947-5_6
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-4924-7
Online ISBN: 978-94-015-8947-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive