Abstract
Climatic disasters of great magnitude are common in many tropical regions (Chapter 8), and they severely affect a range of human activities (Chapter 10). It is therefore not surprising that endeavors to forecast them well in advance extend over a century, and that both the World Climate Program (World Meteorological Organization, 1980, p. 42) and the U.S. National Climate Program (National Climate Program Office, NOAA, 1980, pp. 23–24; 1988, pp. 2, 19–26) identify climate prediction as a major objective. Approaches can be grouped into five major categories: (i) the extrapolation of presumed periodicities, such as the sunspot cycle or other empirically determined time series characteristics; (ii) the assessment of statistical relationships between rainfall and pressure and other data at distant locations; (iii) the relation between rainfall in the pre-season and at the height of the rainy season; (iv) comprehensive diagnostic studies of climate and circulation anomalies combined with statistical methods; and (v) numerical modelling. A scheme of climate prediction based on general circulation diagnostics and statistics (iv) is presented in Fig. 9.0:1.
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© 1991 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
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Hastenrath, S. (1991). Climate Prediction. In: Climate Dynamics of the Tropics. Atmospheric Sciences Library, vol 8. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3156-8_9
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