Abstract
The central concept of Carnap’s probabilistic theory of induction is a triadic relation, c(h, e), the probability or degree of confirmation of the hypothesis, h, on evidence, e. The relation is a purely logical one. The value of c can be computed from a knowledge of h, of e, of the structure of the language, and of the inductive rule to be employed [1 and 2].
[Philosophy of Science 22, 227–230 (1955)].
I am grateful to the Ford Foundation for a grant-in-aid that made this work possible.
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References
Carnap, Rudolf, The Continuum of Inductive Methods (Chicago: U. of Chicago Press, 1952).
Carnap, Rudolf, Logical Foundations of Probability (Chicago: U. of Chicago Press, 1950).
Reichenbach, Hans, Experience and Prediction (Chicago: U. of Chicago Press, 1938).
Simon, Herbert A., ‘A Bayes Solution for a Non-Sequential Decision Problem’, unpublished manuscript.
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© 1977 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
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Simon, H.A. (1977). Prediction and Hindsight as Confirmatory Evidence. In: Models of Discovery. Boston Studies in the Philosophy of Science, vol 54. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9521-1_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-9521-1_3
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