Abstract
A multi-scale dynamical downscaling system has been set up to investigate future air quality trends in Melbourne, Australia due to climate and/or emission changes. The system consists of a comprehensive air emissions inventory; an ensemble of climate trends, a regional climate model for downscaling from synoptic to regional scale and a meteorological-chemical transport model for downscaling from regional to urban scale. Air quality projections for 2030 and 2070 suggest that, in the absence of emission controls, ozone concentrations will increase, leading to a 20–25 % increase in population exposure. The outcomes for PM2.5 show mixed results depending on season. The air quality trends with three different emission scenarios for 2030 were also modelled under the same climate projection. Some impact measures, such as average ozone concentration, are insensitive to the choice of emission scenarios, while others such as exposure to nitrogen dioxide show significant variations for different scenarios.
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Acknowledgments
This work was carried out as a cooperative research project between CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Environment Protection Authority Victoria.
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Questions and Answers
Questioner Name: Sebnem Aksoyoglu
Q: Do you keep biogenic emissions constant? Do you take changes in land use into account?
A: No, biogenic emissions are calculated on the fly in the chemical transport model, thus it reflects changing meteorological conditions, but we keep surface characteristics such as land use or leaf area index constant for the future decade run.
Questioner Name: Volodymyr Nochvai
Q: What is the relationship between exposure assessment values and health effects?
A: We assess impact of air quality on human health with a metric that represents changes in population exposure for the future decade from the current decade. Population exposure is defined as pollutant concentration multiplied by population. With higher concentrations and larger population, total population exposure in the study region gets higher, thus adverse health impact.
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Cope, M. et al. (2014). Projection of Air Quality in Melbourne, Australia in 2030 and 2070 Using a Dynamic Downscaling System. In: Steyn, D., Builtjes, P., Timmermans, R. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXII. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5577-2_3
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