Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Conflict: A Contribution to the Ecology of Warfare

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a potential threat to national security. Climate change does not cause war by itself, but can have significant effects on the ecological basis of societies and thereby lead to instability and unpredictability, which can in turn lead to war. History is replete with episodes of climate change that have led to violent conflict, even the fall of civilizations. This paper identifies climate-related conflicts over natural resources that take place at a local or regional scale and primarily in developing countries. The focus is on the likelihood of increasing conflict between pastoralists and farmers, especially in parts of the world that contain important biological resources. Conflict in such regions can affect food supplies at a time when one billion people already are undernourished. The impacts of climate change are felt by people primarily through impacts on ecosystems. For example, climate change can affect agriculture through three main ecological impacts: changing patterns of rainfall, increasing numbers of extreme climate events, and increasing temperature changing distribution of land productivity. Improving security requires a broader approach to adapting to climate change, drawing on international law and support from climate change adaptation funds.