Abstract
This paper presents investigation of regional and global warming, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (quasiperiodic natural variations of the ocean-atmosphere system in the North Atlantic with typical time scales of 50–100 years) and thermohaline catastrophe (blocking of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic). The typical scale of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is determined by the intensity of the meridional oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. The analyzed oscillation affects various climatic characteristics: air temperature, river discharge in the European and North-American regions, the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, and the parameters of mid-latitude cyclones and anticyclones in the Atlantic–European region. The main mechanism by which the AMO affects the climatic characteristics of the regions neighboring with the North Atlantic is the atmospheric response to the thermal anomalies in the ocean leading to a shift of the centers of atmospheric action and to the changes in the intensity and predominant directions of propagation of atmospheric cyclones and anticyclones. By using the results of long-term instrumental observations carried out in Eastern Europe and the data array of reconstructed temperature in the Alpine region, it is shown that the AMO is responsible for a significant part of low-frequency variations of temperature in Europe. This fact confirms the potential predictability of the regional atmospheric AMO on the decadal-scale. The rate of quasi-periodical regional warming/cooling of surface air temperature due to AMO can exceed the regional temperature rising due to global warming. So, the fast warming of the North Atlantic region during the last 3–4 decades of the twentieth century is due to coincidence of human-induced temperature increase and transition from negative to positive phase of the AMO. Realization of thermohaline catastrophe for the recent climatic epoch is unlikely.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Broecker WS (2006) Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood? Science 312(5777):1146–1148
Cunningham SA et al (2007) Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26, 5N. Science 317:935
Delworth T, Greatbatch RJ (2000) Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux. J Climate 13(9):1489–1495
Delworth T, Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1996) Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J Climate 6(11):1993–2011
Eden C, Jung T (2001) North Atlantic interdecadal variability: oceanic response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865–1997). J Climate 14(5):676–691
Ellison CRW, Chapman MR, Hall IR (2006) Surface and deep ocean interactions during the cold climate event 8200 years ago. Science 312(5783):1929–1932
Elsner JB, Tsonis AA (1994) Low-frequency oscillation. Nature 372:507–508
Enfield D, Mestas-Nunez AM (1999) Multiscale variabilities in global SST and their relationships with tropospheric climate patterns. J Climate 12(9):2719–2733
Griffies A, Bryan K (1997) Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic variability. Science 275(5695):181–184
Hall MM, Bryden HL (1982) Direct estimates and mechanisms of ocean heat transport. Deep-Sea Res 29(3A):872–881
Hatun H, Drange H, Hansen B et al (2005) Influence of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre on the thermohaline circulation. Science 309(5742):1841–1844
IGBP Science series (2003) No.3:18
IPCC4 Assessment (2007) (Topics 1 and 2): 1–14
Kerr RA (2005) Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence? Science 309(5731):41–42
Knight J, Allan R, Folland C, Vellinga M, and Mann M, (2005) The atlantic multidecadal oscillation: a signature of thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. CRCES Workshop on Decadal Climate Variability, 19 October 2005
Kushnir Y (1994) Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J Climate 7(1):141–157
Latif M, Roeckuer E, Mikolajewicz U, Voss R (2000) Tropical stabilization of the thermohaline circulation in a greenhouse warming simulation. J Climate 13(11):1809–1813
Luterbacher J, Gyalistras D, Schmitz C et al (1999) Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 1675. Geophys Res Lett 26(17):2745–2748
Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1999) Are two modes of thermohaline circulation stable? Tellus 51A(3):400–411
Mangini A, Spütl C, Verdes P (2005) Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 years from a d18O stalagmite record. Earth Planet Sci Lett 235(3–4):741–751
Polonskii AB (2001) Role of the ocean in the present-day climatic changes. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 6:32–58
Polonskii AB (2002) On the mechanism of decadal oscillations in the ocean–atmosphere system. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 1:25–34
Polonskii AB, Semiletova EP (2002) On the statistical characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 3:28–42
Polonskii AB, Voskresenskaya EN (1996) Low-frequency variability of meridional drift transfers in the North Atlantic. Meteorol Gidrol 7:89–99
Polonskii AB, Voskresenskaya EN (2004) On the statistical structure of hydrometeoro-logycal fields in the North Atlantic. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 1:14–25
Polonskii AB, Yu BM, Voskresenskaya EN (2007) Variability of Black Sea cyclones in the second half of the 20th century. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 6:47–58
Polonskii AB, Basharin DV, Voskresenskaya EN (2004) North Atlantic Oscillation: description, mechanisms, and influence on the climate of Europe. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 2:42–59
Polonsky AB (2001) Are we seeing human-induced warming of the deep layers in the North subtropical Atlantic. CLIVAR Exchanges 6(1):17–19
Polonsky AB, Krasheninnikova SB (2007) Meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic and its tendencies in the second half of XX century. Morsk Gidrofiz Zh 1:39–52
Raa L, Dijkstra HA, Gerrits J (2004) Identification of the mechanism of interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. J Phys Oceanogr 34(12):2792–2807
Rumstorf S (1995) Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle. Nature 376:145–149
Schlesinger ME, Ramankutty N (1994) An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature 367:161–164
Stommel H (1961) Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow. Tellus 13(2):224–230
Storch H et al (2004) Reconstructing past climate from noisy data. Science 306(5696):679–682. 60 years of Station Mike (2000). Norway
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Polonsky, A. (2011). Global Warming, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Thermohaline Catastrophe and Their Impact on Climate of the North Atlantic Region. In: Kogan, F., Powell, A., Fedorov, O. (eds) Use of Satellite and In-Situ Data to Improve Sustainability. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9618-0_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9618-0_15
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-9617-3
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-9618-0
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)