Abstract
This chapter presents assumptions concerning expected future mortality in 27 selected European countries for the period 2002–2052. The assumptions are based on mortality theories as well as past trajectories in Europe in the second half of the twentieth century. Special attention is paid to the reduction of East–West and male–female gaps in life expectancy. Descriptive, knowledge-based expectations for future mortality are quantified in order to be useful for population dynamics modelling. The mortality scenarios obtained in that way are compared with ones applied in similar studies of national as well as global population projections.
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Notes
- 1.
The countries for which the maximum life expectancy is observed differ slightly from the ones quoted by Oeppen and Vaupel (2002), likely owing to the different source of data used in the latter study.
- 2.
The author is very grateful to an anonymous reviewer of the manuscript for this suggestion.
- 3.
See Sect. 11.5 for details.
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Bijak, J. (2013). Mortality Scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052. In: Kupiszewski, M. (eds) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_7
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