Abstract
This chapter summarizes assumptions about future developments of fertility in 27 European countries for the period 2002–2052. Fertility dynamics is presented in the context of a theoretical framework as well as in the context of fertility developments in Europe in the second half of the twentieth century. On this basis, knowledge-based expectations for the future are presented and subsequently quantified. The demographic scenarios obtained in that way are compared with ones applied in similar studies of national and worldwide population projections. The results of the study, the fertility scenarios for the selected European countries, are summarized in brief in the final section of this chapter.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
In contemporary Europe the replacement level corresponds to a TFR of about 2.08, which under the mortality conditions observed in developed countries and with no international migration ensures the simple replacement of a generation of parents by a generation of children and thus zero population growth.
- 2.
It is worth noting that in terms of fertility changes, Slovenia can be seen rather as a Southern European country than as postsocialist country, firstly owing to the relatively open character of Titoist socialism in the former Yugoslavia, and secondly owing to the high level of socio-economic development of Slovenia.
- 3.
The formula follows Weston (2002).
References
Alho, J. (1998). A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland. Reviews 1998/4. Helsinki: Statistics Finland.
Becker, G. S. (1991). A treatise on the family (Rev. and enlarged ed.). Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Bongaarts, J. (2001). Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies. Population and Development Review, 27(Supplement), 261–281.
Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, 24(2), 271–291.
Council of Europe. (1997–2003). Recent demographic developments in Europe. Strasbourg: Council of Europe.
Easterlin, R. A. (1975). An economic framework for fertility analysis. Studies in Family Planning, 6, 54–63.
Eurostat. (1997b). Births expectations and their use in fertility forecasting (Eurostat Working Paper E4/1997-4). Luxembourg: Eurostat.
Gauthier, A. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialised countries: A review of the literature. Population and Development Review, 26(3), 323–346.
Gjaltema, T. A. (2001, June 7–9). Judgement in population forecasting. Paper prepared for the European Population Conference, Helsinki, Finland.
International Labour Organization. (2003). LABORSTA database on labour statistics. http://laborsta.ilo.org
Keilman, N. (2001, August 18–24). TFR predictions based on Brownian motion theory. Paper prepared for the XXIV IUSSP General Population Conference, Salvador, Brazil.
Keilman, N., & Cruijsen, H. (1992). National population forecasting in industrialized countries. Amsterdam: Swets & Zeitlinger.
Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641–680.
Lee, R. (1998). Probabilistic approaches to population forecasting. Population and Development Review, 24(Supplement), 156–190.
Lesthaeghe, R., & van de Kaa, D. J. (1986). Twee demografische transities? In D. J. van de Kaa & R. Lesthaeghe (Eds.), Bevolking: Groei en Krimp (pp. 9–24). Deventer: Van Loghum Slaterus.
Liefbroer, A. C., & Corijn, M. (1999). Who, what, where, and when? Specifying the impact of educational attainment and labour force participation on family formation. European Journal of Population, 15(1), 45–75.
Lutz, W., Saariluoma, P., Sanderson, W. C., & Scherbov, S. (2000). New developments in the methodology of expert- and argument-based probabilistic population forecasting (IAASA Interim Report IR-00-020).
Muszyńska, M. (2003). Zróżnicowanie modeli rodziny w krajach europejskich w kontekście statusu kobiety w społeczeństwie [Family models differences in Europe in the context of the status of woman in the society]. Studia Demograficzne nr, 2(144), 55–77.
Okólski, M. (2004). Demografia zmiany społecznej [Demography of social change]. Warsaw: Scholar.
Philipov, D., & Kohler, H.-P. (2001). Tempo effects in the fertility decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia. European Journal of Population, 17, 37–60.
Sobotka, T. (2002). Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries: Evidence and interpretation (Population Research Centre Working Paper 02–1). University of Groningen.
Sobotka, T. (2004). Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing? Population and Development Review, 30(2), 195–220.
Surkyn, J., & Lesthaeghe, R. (2004). Value orientations and the second demographic transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An update. Demographic Research Special Collection, 3, 45–86.
United Nations. (2003a). World population prospects: 2002 revision. New York/Geneva: United Nations.
United Nations. (2003b). UN ECE economic survey of Europe, No. 2. New York: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
van de Kaa, D. J. (1987). Europe’s second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–57.
van de Kaa, D. J. (2003). Demographics in transition: an essay on continuity and discontinuity in value change. In I. E. Kotowska & J. Jóźwiak (Eds.), Population of Central and Eastern Europe: Challenges and opportunities (pp. 641–663). Warsaw: Statistical Publishing Establishment.
van Imhoff, E. (2001). On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures. Demographic Research, 5, 23–64.
Voas, D. (2003). Conflicting preferences: A reason fertility tends to be too high or too low. Population and Development Review, 29(4), 627–646.
Weston, S. (2002). An introduction to the mathematics and construction of splines. Addix Software Consultancy, http://www.addix.com
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bijak, J. (2013). Fertility Scenarios for 27 European Countries, 2002–2052. In: Kupiszewski, M. (eds) International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-8947-2
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-8948-9
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)