Abstract
In this chapter we present an analysis of the simulated rainfall over Ethiopia in climate simulations from the current generation HadAM3 climate model and from the new high-resolution HiGAM climate model. Comparisons are made with observations of rainfall from Ethiopian rain gauge data, merged gauge-satellite datasets and the ECMWF reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). An intercomparison between observational datasets shows that the ECMWF reanalyses have significant biases in rainfall, for example severely overestimating rainfall during the season of Kerimt over the Ethiopian Highlands. When evaluated against the rain gauge data, the climate models, particularly the high-resolution HiGAM model, are able to provide a good representation of the regional rainfall over Ethiopia. Errors in the simulation of the interannual variability of rainfall in the HiGAM model are associated with biases in the large-scale circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Camberlin P (1995) June–September rainfall in northeastern Africa and atmospheric signals over the tropics: a zonal perspective. Int J Climatol 15:773–783
Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Slingo JM, Craufurd PQ, Grimes DIF (2004) Design and optimisation of a large area process-based model for annual crops. Agric For Meteorol 124:99–120
Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Slingo JM, Craufurd PQ, Grimes DIF (2005) Simulation of crop yields using the ERA40 re-analysis: limits to skill and non-stationarity in weather-yield relationships. J Appl Meteorol 44:516–531
Challinor A, Wheeler T, Garforth C, Craufurd P, Kassam A (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Clim Change 83:381–399
Conway D, Mould C, Wolde AB (2004) Over one century of rainfall and temperature observations at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 24:77–91
Cooper P (2004) Coping with climatic variability and adapting to climate change: rural water management in dry-land areas. International Development Research Centre, London
Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E, O’Neill A, Pardo-Iguzquiza E (2009) Evaluation of reanalysis rainfall estimates over Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 29:67–78
Fiorino M (2000) AMIP II sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration observations. Available from http://www.pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/amip/AMIP2EXPDSN/BCSOBS/amip2bcs.htm
Gissila T, Black E, Grimes D, Slingo J (2004) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian summer rains. Int J Climatol 24:1345–1358
Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147–168
Grist JP, Nicholson SE (2001) A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Clim 14:1337–1359
Hansen JW, Jones JW (2000) Scaling-up crop models for climatic variability applications. Agric Syst 65:43–72
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton JT et al (eds) Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, 881pp
IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY, 996pp
IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 976pp
Jayne TS, Yamano T, Webera M, Tschirleya D, Benficaa R, Chapotoa A, Zuluc B (2003) Smallholder income and land distribution in Africa: implications for poverty reduction strategies. Food Policy 28:253–275
Jenkins G, Lowe J (2003) Handling uncertainties in the UKCIP02 scenarios of climate change. Technical Note 44, Hadley Centre, UK
Johns TC, Coauthors (2006) The new Hadley centre ClimateModel (HadGEM1): evaluation of coupled simulations. J Clim 19:1327–1353
Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. In Proceedings of first technical conference on meteorological research in Eastern and Southern Africa, Kenya Meteorological Department, Nairobi, Kenya, pp 53–57
Martin GM, Ringer MA, Pope VD, Jones A, Dearden C, Hinton TJ (2006) The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley centre global environmental model (HadGEM1). Part I: model description and global climatology. J Clim 19:1274–1301
Morse AP, Doblas-Reyes F, Hoshen MB, Hagedorn Rand, Palmer TN (2005) A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multimodel seasonal forecast system using a malaria model. Tellus 57:464–475
Nicholson SE, Grist JP (2003) The seasonal evolution of the atmospheric circulation over west Africa and equatorial Africa. J Clim 16:1013–1030
Pope V, Gallani ML, Rowntree PR, Stratton RA (2000) The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley centre climate model: HadAM3. Clim Dyn 16:123–146
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J Geophys Res, 108, No. D14, 4407 10.1029/2002JD002670
Ringer MA, Martin GM, Greeves CZ, Hinton TJ, James PM, Pope VD, Scaife AA, Stratton RA, Inness PM, Slingo JM, Yang G-Y (2006) The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley centre global environmental model (HadGEM1). Part II: aspects of variability and regional climate. J Clim 19:1302–1326
Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153–180
Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with horn of Africa June–September rainfall. Int J Climatol 29:1075–1100
Shaffrey LC, Stevens I, Norton WA, Roberts MJ, Vidale PL, Harle JD, Jrrar A, Stevens DP, Woodage MJ, Demory ME, Donners J, Clark DB, Clayton A, Cole JW, Wilson SS, Connolley WM, Davies TM, Iwi AM, Johns TC, King JC, New AL, Slingo JM, Slingo A, Steenman-Clark L, Martin GM (2009) UK-HiGEM: the new UK high resolution global ENVIRONMEntMODEL. Model description and basic evaluation. J Clim 22:1861–1896
Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2007) ERA-interim: new ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110:25–35
Uppala SM, Coauthors (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961
Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S, Berrisford P, Simmons A (2008) Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-interim. ECMWF Newsl 115:12–18
Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Diro, G.T., Toniazzo, T., Shaffrey, L. (2011). Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models. In: Williams, C., Kniveton, D. (eds) African Climate and Climate Change. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 43. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3842-5_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-3841-8
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-3842-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)